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Probabilistic Wildfire Risk (Map Service)

Metadata Updated: April 21, 2025

National burn probability (BP) and conditional fire intensity level (FIL) data were generated for the conterminous United States (US) using a geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. [2011]). The FSim system includes modules for weather generation, wildfire occurrence, fire growth, and fire suppression. FSim is designed to simulate the occurrence and growth of wildfires under tens of thousands of hypothetical contemporary fire seasons in order to estimate the probability of a given area (i.e., pixel) burning under current landscape conditions and fire management practices. The data presented here represent modeled BP and FIL for the conterminous US at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution. The six FILs correspond to flame-length classes as follows: FIL1 = < 2 feet (ft); FIL2 = 2 < 4 ft.; FIL3 = 4 < 6 ft.; FIL4 = 6 < 8 ft.; FIL5 = 8 < 12 ft.; FIL6 = 12+ ft. Because they indicate conditional probabilities (i.e., representing the likelihood of burning at a certain intensity level, given that a fire occurs), the FIL*_20160830 data must be used in conjunction with the BP_20160830 data for risk assessment.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: Creative Commons Attribution

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date November 3, 2022
Metadata Updated Date April 21, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from USDA JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 3, 2022
Metadata Updated Date April 21, 2025
Publisher U.S. Forest Service
Maintainer
Identifier https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=203afc0fea1a411fa2147ba9c5ef6119
Data First Published 2017-06-08
Data Last Modified 2022-08-25
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 005:96
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 32276e67-d1c6-49f8-8199-9ce627e60fbe
Harvest Source Id d3fafa34-0cb9-48f1-ab1d-5b5fdc783806
Harvest Source Title USDA JSON
Homepage URL https://data-usfs.hub.arcgis.com/documents/usfs::probabilistic-wildfire-risk-map-service
License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -127.7380,24.0460,-73.9490,49.7816
Program Code 005:059
Progresscode onGoing
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 29cb31658c9f5c28030c515dac42f13a7b1052ffe01b1962dbe1b9e0f4540220
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -127.7380, 24.0460, -127.7380, 49.7816, -73.9490, 49.7816, -73.9490, 24.0460, -127.7380, 24.0460}

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