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Data from: Predicted range expansion of the larger grain borer, <i>Prostephanus truncatus </i>(Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), under projected climate change scenarios

Metadata Updated: April 21, 2025

The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America but has adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forested habitats. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (1) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus (2) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (3) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected to 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 (low warming) and 8.5 (high warming). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (>75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCP 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12 and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show the distribution centers move more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not shift. These results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: Creative Commons Attribution

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Dates

Metadata Created Date March 30, 2024
Metadata Updated Date April 21, 2025
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from USDA JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date March 30, 2024
Metadata Updated Date April 21, 2025
Publisher Agricultural Research Service
Maintainer
Identifier 10.15482/USDA.ADC/25371154.v1
Data Last Modified 2024-10-02
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 005:18
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 5ee9bdd4-2c91-4aa8-b215-1b5c5aa58506
Harvest Source Id d3fafa34-0cb9-48f1-ab1d-5b5fdc783806
Harvest Source Title USDA JSON
License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Program Code 005:040
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash d132be7a32049bd2b01984e472ac4a708cf5544bcafb4c1b4e55fa3f8cff4aad
Source Schema Version 1.1
Temporal 2022-11-01/2023-11-01

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