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Climate Change Pressures Heat Zones Mean Days Over 30 Degrees Celsius RCP45 2010-2039

Metadata Updated: April 21, 2025

Evaluating multiple signals of climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods (2010�2039, 2040�2069, 2070�2099) during this century to a baseline period (1980�2009) emphasizes potential changes for growing degree days (GDD), plant hardiness zones (PHZ), and heat zones. These indices were derived using the CCSM4 and GFDL CM3 models under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and included in Matthews et al. (2018). Daily temperature was downscaled by Maurer et al. (https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO470006) at a 1/8 degree grid scale and used to obtain growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, and heat zones. Each of these indices provides unique information about plant health related to changes in climatic conditions that influence establishment, growth, and survival. These data and the calculated changes are provided as 14 individual IMG files for each index to assist with management planning and decision making into the future. For each of the four indices the following are included: two baseline files (1980�2009), three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario CCSM4 under RCP 4.5 along with three files of changes, and three files representing 30-year periods for the scenario GFDL CM3 under RCP 8.5 along with three files of changes.Heat zones map the distribution of potential heat stress for plants and animals, including humans. We define heat zones as the number of days with maximum daily temperature >30 �C (86 �F). Because species have unique adaptations and abilities to tolerate a wide variety of conditions, this metric is used merely as an indicator of change in �hot� conditions. The 30 �C value is set primarily for agricultural production and is a general temperature threshold at which photosynthesis can be negatively impacted for C3 plants (e.g., most species including trees), but it certainly also captures temperatures that induce stress in humans as well. In addition, increases in temperature above these thresholds for longer periods, especially when accompanied with prolonged dry conditions, are linked to reduced performance and likely mortality of trees. Each day surpassing the 30 �C threshold was tallied and summed for each year and reported as the mean number of days, per year, over each 30-year period: baseline, early, mid, and late century.�Original data and associated metadata can be downloaded from this website:�https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/Product/RDS-2019-0001

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: Creative Commons Attribution

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Dates

Metadata Created Date May 31, 2024
Metadata Updated Date April 21, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from USDA JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date May 31, 2024
Metadata Updated Date April 21, 2025
Publisher U.S. Forest Service
Maintainer
Identifier https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=e8ed903192ae4459bf8d0be6de874cb1
Data First Published 2024-05-06
Data Last Modified 2024-05-14
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 005:96
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id c4b684ab-f09b-424c-803c-9fc8428b999b
Harvest Source Id d3fafa34-0cb9-48f1-ab1d-5b5fdc783806
Harvest Source Title USDA JSON
Homepage URL https://data-usfs.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/usfs::climate-change-pressures-heat-zones-mean-days-over-30-degrees-celsius-rcp45-2010-2039
License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -124.8125,25.0625,-67.0625,52.8125
Program Code 005:059
Progresscode onGoing
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash d1c5c1d5786a8f9f956ed38e52bc0a087cfb6b7adf0f6c1d3fd750e106008892
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -124.8125, 25.0625, -124.8125, 52.8125, -67.0625, 52.8125, -67.0625, 25.0625, -124.8125, 25.0625}

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