Modeling Potential Changes in Seagrass Coverage, Biomass and Vulnerability Under Increased Temperature

Metadata Updated: June 5, 2024

Increased water temperature from global climate change may exacerbate existing stresses to eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadows throughout the northeastern United States, possibly leading to declines in populations. In this study, we developed a data-driven model to estimate how seagrass distribution and abundance will likely change with expected temperature increases under climate-change scenarios and applied the model to Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts. Long-term seagrass and water quality monitoring data along with satellite temperature data were used to generate the spatial distribution of environmental drivers across the Bay. These data were then used in a 0-D point-model that incorporated both empirical and mechanistic relationships to predict future spatial seagrass distribution and abundance assuming increases of 1.2°C and 1.95°C by the year 2050. The model demonstrated decline in distribution and abundance with increasing temperature alongside estimated 49 to 93% reductions in biomass. There was a complete loss of regions able to sustain seagrass under the highest temperature scenario. Most of the predicted loss occurred along the shallow and deep edges of the meadows effectively squeezing eelgrass into a narrow depth range where both light and temperature conditions remain favorable for eelgrass growth. These results are intended to help inform the development of targeted conservation and management actions to address the region-wide downward trajectory and facilitate recovery.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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References

https://irma.nps.gov/DataStore/Reference/Profile/2300463

Dates

Metadata Created Date	August 30, 2023
Metadata Updated Date	June 5, 2024

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Additional Metadata

Resource Type	Dataset
Metadata Created Date	August 30, 2023
Metadata Updated Date	June 5, 2024
Publisher	National Park Service
Maintainer	NPS IRMA Help
@Id	http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/3f196f5868ba9027b6586aa8c32196be
Identifier	NPS_DataStore_2300463
Data First Published	2023-08-22T12:00:00Z
Data Last Modified	2023-08-22
Category	Generic Dataset
Public Access Level	public
Bureau Code	010:24
Metadata Context	https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID	https://datainventory.doi.gov/data.json
Schema Version	https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby	https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Data Quality	True
Harvest Object Id	9d29f067-2eba-48e1-b008-b19686214543
Harvest Source Id	52bfcc16-6e15-478f-809a-b1bc76f1aeda
Harvest Source Title	DOI EDI
Homepage URL	https://irma.nps.gov/DataStore/Reference/Profile/2300463
Old Spatial	-70.25153,41.5994873,-69.92308,42.0868721
Program Code	010:118, 010:119
Publisher Hierarchy	White House > U.S. Department of the Interior > National Park Service
Related Documents	https://irma.nps.gov/DataStore/Reference/Profile/2300463
Source Datajson Identifier	True
Source Hash	a885e12258a60efa7c6691b8ef1e8e6383ea95ce654a647c2a0da44a0c657cba
Source Schema Version	1.1
Spatial	{"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -70.25153, 41.5994873, -70.25153, 42.0868721, -69.92308, 42.0868721, -69.92308, 41.5994873, -70.25153, 41.5994873}
Temporal	2003-01-01T12:00:00Z/2019-01-01T12:00:00Z

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