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Code and outputs for a mallard reproduction model incorporating migration delays and reduced adult body mass

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: August 01, 2026 at 05:57 AM | Dataset Last Updated: September 29, 2025 at 12:00 AM
These data are outputs from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) reproduction model that accounts for breeding ground arrival time and the body mass of individuals. Specifically, adult female mallards that arrive late or with lower body mass have the potential for lower clutch sizes and are less likely to renest if a nest fails. The model is based on an existing mallard reproduction model that simulates mallards breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We augmented the model using additional sources that provide alternative calculation of adult survival, first nest initiation probability, nest initiation date, renesting probability, renesting interval, brood loss date, and brood-rearing period. We also added components to the model that allow survival of adults, nests, and broods to increase. Changes to body mass and migration timing are both potential impacts of oil spills, so we executed the model with populations of 1000 female mallards that had different mean arrival dates and mean body masses. Model results are presented at the level of population and contain information such as survival rates for adults, nests, and broods; number of nests created by the population of adults, and the production of ducklings per adult female. In addition to model outputs, this release contains a pair of scripts that run the model.

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