A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

Metadata Updated: February 28, 2019

A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

CAITLIN RACE, MICHAEL STEINBACH, AUROOP GANGULY, FRED SEMAZZI*, AND VIPIN KUMAR*

Abstract. The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditional and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.

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Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: U.S. Government Work

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Dates

Metadata Created Date August 1, 2018
Metadata Updated Date February 28, 2019
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date August 1, 2018
Metadata Updated Date February 28, 2019
Publisher Dashlink
Unique Identifier DASHLINK_238
Maintainer
Elizabeth Foughty
Maintainer Email
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://data.nasa.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 375a7240-3dff-4372-b919-201a38e58a61
Harvest Source Id 39e4ad2a-47ca-4507-8258-852babd0fd99
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Data First Published 2010-10-13
Homepage URL https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/resources/238/
License http://www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/
Data Last Modified 2018-07-19
Program Code 026:029
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash efbfdaf7e9e3a558c851bbf5b381f92306a9c13d
Source Schema Version 1.1

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