{"@type": "dcat:Dataset", "accessLevel": "public", "accrualPeriodicity": "irregular", "bureauCode": ["026:00"], "contactPoint": {"@type": "vcard:Contact", "fn": "Elizabeth Foughty", "hasEmail": "mailto:elizabeth.a.foughty@nasa.gov"}, "description": "A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND\r\nGENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY\r\nGLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS\r\n\r\nCAITLIN RACE*, MICHAEL STEINBACH*, AUROOP GANGULY**, FRED SEMAZZI***,\r\nAND VIPIN KUMAR*\r\n\r\nAbstract. The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies\r\nof hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science\r\nbut among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies.\r\nHere we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate\r\nmodel simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based\r\non sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the\r\ndevelopment of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging\r\nclimate science problems with innovative combinations of traditional and state-of-the-art methods\r\nis demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship\r\nbetween sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely\r\nprojections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment\r\nbased in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions\r\nScenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science\r\nand impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that\r\nremains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations\r\nwith a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.", "distribution": [{"@type": "dcat:Distribution", "description": "A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS", "downloadURL": "https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/publication/Paper_16_.pdf", "format": "PDF", "mediaType": "application/pdf", "title": "Paper 16 .pdf"}], "identifier": "DASHLINK_238", "issued": "2010-10-13", "keyword": ["ames", "dashlink", "nasa"], "landingPage": "https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/resources/238/", "modified": "2025-03-31", "programCode": ["026:029"], "publisher": {"@type": "org:Organization", "name": "Dashlink"}, "title": "A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS"}