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WARMER-2 model inputs and projections for three tidal wetland sites across San Francisco Bay estuary

Metadata Updated: July 1, 2024

Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework includes an improved calibration scheme that more accurately reconstructs soil profiles and incorporates parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. Using WARMER-2, we evaluated elevation change in three tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, CA, USA along an estuarine tidal and salinity gradient with varying scenarios of SLR, salinization, and changes in sediment availability. We also tested the sensitivity of marsh elevation and carbon accumulation rates to different plant productivity functions. Wetland elevation at all three sites was sensitive to changes in sediment availability, but sites with greater initial elevations or space for upland transgression persisted longer under higher SLR rates than sites at lower elevations. Using a multi-species wetland vegetation transition model for organic matter contribution to accretion, WARMER-2 projected increased elevations relative to sea levels (resilience) and higher rates of carbon accumulation when compared with projections assuming no future change in vegetation with SLR. The new WARMER-2 modeling framework is widely applicable to other tidal wetland ecosystems and can assist in teasing apart important drivers of wetland elevation change under SLR.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: us-pd

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Dates

Metadata Created Date June 2, 2023
Metadata Updated Date July 1, 2024

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI EDI

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date June 2, 2023
Metadata Updated Date July 1, 2024
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
@Id http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/86766a5c7b0818b442e25c1ecddda5e6
Identifier USGS:60d39146d34e12a1b009b534
Data Last Modified 20211123
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://datainventory.doi.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id aee1e557-aa54-4952-a73a-52491a4c6395
Harvest Source Id 52bfcc16-6e15-478f-809a-b1bc76f1aeda
Harvest Source Title DOI EDI
License http://www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -122.5868,38.0243,-121.8483,38.2506
Publisher Hierarchy White House > U.S. Department of the Interior > U.S. Geological Survey
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash ca3d7d65d4147b7e11f8d368298890e41fb26198bc22c6e0e341d976394ab245
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -122.5868, 38.0243, -122.5868, 38.2506, -121.8483, 38.2506, -121.8483, 38.0243, -122.5868, 38.0243}

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