Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Skip to content

Trends and a Targeted Annual Warning System for Greater Sage-Grouse in the Western United States (ver. 3.0, February 2024)

Metadata Updated: July 20, 2024

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. These data represent an updated population trend analysis and Targeted Annual Warning System (TAWS) for state and federal land and wildlife managers to use best available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations range-wide. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022) and includes population lek count data from 1960-2023. Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.8 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.1-3.1). Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Mean extirpation probabilities calculated across all neighborhood clusters at approximately 18, 37, and 55 years in the future were 0.15 (SD of 0.25), 0.22 (SD of 0.27), and 0.26 (SD of 0.29), respectively. We also present updated results to the TAWS which models rates of change in abundance from spatially structured populations and identifies when local declines fall out of synchrony with trends at larger spatial scales. The TAWS framework provides signals that alert managers to the categorical significance of observed declines while avoiding signals where declines result from drivers operating at larger spatial scales (for example, periodic reductions in primary productivity owing to drought). Definitions: Watch: Assigned to populations that exhibit evidence of population decline below those of their respective climate cluster (slow signal) over 2 consecutive years. Warning: Assigned to populations that experienced slow signals in 3 out of 4 consecutive years OR a relatively strong magnitude (fast signal) of evidence for 2 out of 3 years. Watches may identify the need for intensive monitoring whereas warnings may identify the need for management intervention aimed at stabilizing populations. References: Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., O’Donnell, M.S., Aldridge, C.L., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Ricca, M.A., Wann, G.T., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2021, Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework-Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020-1154, 243 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201154. Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., Aldridge, C.L., O’Donnell, M.S., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2022, Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)-Updated 1960-2021: U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1165, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1165

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date May 31, 2023
Metadata Updated Date July 20, 2024

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI EDI

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date May 31, 2023
Metadata Updated Date July 20, 2024
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
@Id http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/0de148d8e1424cac12304e61ddb4440f
Identifier USGS:637e9b26d34ed907bf76eb1e
Data Last Modified 20240212
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://datainventory.doi.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 931ab3dd-f5cb-4393-8e55-86533b1904b2
Harvest Source Id 52bfcc16-6e15-478f-809a-b1bc76f1aeda
Harvest Source Title DOI EDI
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -119.5276,35.996,-103.4842,49.9086
Publisher Hierarchy White House > U.S. Department of the Interior > U.S. Geological Survey
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 8679278f307e7c1066792a1912208735a5a54fb660ee6c40acc0139d897a24de
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -119.5276, 35.996, -119.5276, 49.9086, -103.4842, 49.9086, -103.4842, 35.996, -119.5276, 35.996}

Didn't find what you're looking for? Suggest a dataset here.