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Trends and a targeted annual warning system for greater sage-grouse in the western United States

Metadata Updated: October 28, 2023

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. These data represent an updated population trend analysis and Targeted Annual Warning System (TAWS) for state and federal land and wildlife managers to use best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations range-wide. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022) and includes population lek count data from 1960-2022. Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2-4.7). Cumulative declines were 40.9, 65.0, and 79.6 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. We also present updated results to the TAWS which models rates of change in abundance from spatially structured populations and identifies when local declines fall out of synchrony with trends at larger spatial scales. The TAWS framework provides signals that alert managers to the categorical significance of observed declines while avoiding signals where declines result from drivers operating at larger spatial scales (e.g., periodic reductions in primary productivity owing to drought). Definitions: Watch: Assigned to populations that exhibit evidence of population decline below those of their respective climate cluster (slow signal) over 2 consecutive years. Warning: Assigned to populations that experienced slow signals in 3 out of 4 consecutive years OR a relatively strong magnitude (fast signal) of evidence for 2 out of 3 years. Watches may identify the need for intensive monitoring whereas warnings may identify the need for management intervention aimed at stabilizing populations. References: Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., O’Donnell, M.S., Aldridge, C.L., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Ricca, M.A., Wann, G.T., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2021, Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework-Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020-1154, 243 p., Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., Aldridge, C.L., O’Donnell, M.S., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2022, Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)-Updated 1960-2021: U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1165, 16 p.,

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Metadata Created Date May 31, 2023
Metadata Updated Date October 28, 2023

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI EDI

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date May 31, 2023
Metadata Updated Date October 28, 2023
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Identifier USGS:637e9b26d34ed907bf76eb1e
Data Last Modified 20230525
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context
Metadata Catalog ID
Schema Version
Catalog Describedby
Harvest Object Id dcd6ba3c-419e-43bc-89f1-b2b73d105425
Harvest Source Id 52bfcc16-6e15-478f-809a-b1bc76f1aeda
Harvest Source Title DOI EDI
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -119.5276,35.996,-103.4842,49.9086
Publisher Hierarchy White House > U.S. Department of the Interior > U.S. Geological Survey
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 4dd45898dd00d0d68a4e91d682890e905cc756eacfb92dab5d8bb096beb2538f
Source Schema Version 1.1
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