TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

Metadata Updated: May 2, 2019

CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA*

Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate scientists to simulate and predict climate. Given temperature predictions from the top 20 climate models worldwide, and over 100 years of historical temperature data, we track the changing sequence of which model currently predicts best. We use an algorithm due to Monteleoni and Jaakkola that models the sequence of observations using a hierarchical learner, based on a set of generalized Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where the identity of the current best climate model is the hidden variable. The transition probabilities between climate models are learned online, simultaneous to tracking the temperature predictions. On historical data, our online learning algorithm’s average prediction loss nearly matches that of the best performing climate model in hindsight. Moreover its performance surpasses that of the average model prediction, which was the current state-of-the-art in climate science, the median prediction, and least squares linear regression. We also experimented on climate model predictions through the year 2098. Simulating labels with the predictions of any one climate model, we found significantly improved performance using our online learning algorithm with respect to the other climate models, and techniques.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: U.S. Government Work

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Dates

Metadata Created Date August 1, 2018
Metadata Updated Date May 2, 2019
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date August 1, 2018
Metadata Updated Date May 2, 2019
Publisher Dashlink
Unique Identifier DASHLINK_223
Maintainer
Elizabeth Foughty
Maintainer Email
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://data.nasa.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Datagov Dedupe Retained 20190501230127
Harvest Object Id 8a5e9583-7bba-48bf-9041-7afba4621361
Harvest Source Id 39e4ad2a-47ca-4507-8258-852babd0fd99
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Data First Published 2010-10-13
Homepage URL https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/resources/223/
License http://www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/
Data Last Modified 2018-07-19
Program Code 026:029
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 996525bc36177cfbdb8282d5bec3adc97a791823
Source Schema Version 1.1

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