Lake Michigan experiences quasi-decadal fluctuations between high and low water levels, resulting in variable impacts to navigation and tourism, as well as changes in shoreline position and coastal habitat extent. Recent high water levels are a concern for homeowners and policy-makers due to significant shoreline recession. Nearshore waves, currents and bathymetry are major factors influencing local sediment transport and shoreline behavior, but rigorous models of these processes are largely absent for Lake Michigan and frequent “real-time” surveying can be cost prohibitive for small communities. As such, there have been few attempts to quantitatively estimate potential rates and extents of wave-driven erosion and nearshore sediment transport at sandy coastal systems in the Great Lakes, particularly related to fluctuations in lake level. In this study we numerically model nearshore sediment transport and resulting changes in sandy beach and nearshore morphology in order to estimate future coastal geomorphic change in response to storms and varying lake levels.