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Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS)

Published by Office of Coast Survey | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce | Catalog Last Checked: August 01, 2026 at 04:22 AM | Dataset Last Updated: January 01, 2020 at 12:00 AM
This dataset collection describes the Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS, formerly ESTOFS), which is a collaboration between the NOAA's Office of Coast Survey (OCS)/Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL), University of Notre Dame, Virginia Institute of Marine Science and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The STOFS system runs on NCEP's central high performance computing system, the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System 2 (WCOSS2), and is composed of two main products: STOFS-2D-Global and STOFS-3D-Atlantic. STOFS-2D-Global is a two-dimensional depth averaged global component based on the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model core. STOFS-2D-Global runs four times daily producing numerical storm surge and tide model forecast guidance globally out to 180 hours. The model is forced by real time output of winds and pressure from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The domain of the operational STOFS-2D-Global forecast guidance covers the entire globe, including the floodplain of the coastal U.S., the Caribbean area surrounding Puerto Rico, and Alaska. STOFS-3D-Atlantic is a three-dimensional (3D) model component for the Atlantic basin (STOFS-3D-Atl) based on the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM) core. STOFS-3D-Atl runs daily to provide one day of nowcast and four days of water level and surface current forecast guidance. STOFS-3D-Atl components make use of outputs from the National Water Model (NWM) to include inland hydrology and extreme precipitation effects on coastal flooding, forecast guidance from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model as the surface meteorological forcing, the combined tidal and subtidal water level, and three-dimensional water temperature, salinity, and currents from the NCEP Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (G-RTOFS) as the open ocean boundary forcing. Finally, the STOFS Reanalysis was created by building on NOAA's STOFS-3D-Atlantic forecast (STOFS-3D-Atl) and implementing data assimilation using an efficient Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) to assimilate CO-OPS water level gauges along the east and Gulf coasts. A 26-year reanalysis was then conducted using this tool, spanning from 2000 to 2025, with each year being simulated separately but with a one-month overlap between years (i.e. 2001 simulation starts from Dec 1, 2000). This database represents the first ever physically based simulation for total water levels.

Resources

5 resources available

  • NOAA 3-D Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System for the Atlantic Basin (STOFS-3D-Atlantic) on AWS

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  • NOAA Global Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System 2-D (STOFS-2D-Global) on AWS

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  • nowCOAST Dissemination Platform

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  • GCMD Keyword Forum Page

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  • Full Metadata Record

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