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Statistical Downscaling Temperature data metadata

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: October 12, 2026 at 05:08 AM | Dataset Last Updated: October 09, 2026 at 12:00 AM
In the expectation that global climate will change steadily in the coming decades, this research project had the goal to obtain a more detailed view of the climatic changes that Hawai’i could experience by the mid and late 21st century. Given the importance of rainfall for Hawaiian ecosystems and freshwater reserves, this project investigated past seasonal rainfall pattern and developed a statistical model to estimate future rainfall changes for the major islands. As a result of this research, high-resolution maps and data are now available that researchers can use to study potential impacts on endangered species, or use the rainfall changes as input in decision-support tools. This data product provides data files that present future climate change rainfall scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands. The data products are served in GIS compatible formats, text-based spreadsheet tables, and the scientific data format NetCDF. Furthermore, figure files in PDF format are part of the distribution. The data product contains information on future rainfall change scenarios for the main Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui Nui, and Hawaii) for two time periods in the 21st century 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. In addition, some information from the historical 19th to 20th century are provided. The statistical downscaling method worked with station rainfall data. Geospatial interpolation methods were applied to create spatially interpolated gridded maps and contour files for the main Hawaiian Islands. The rainfall anomaly maps are provided in different resolutions (3km, 250m, and 0.5 minute resolution in longitude and latitude). In addition to the anomaly maps, we included seasonal rainfall climatology maps as references (base maps). These base maps, which were obtained from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii products (Giambelluca et al., 2013; http://rainfall.geography.hawaii.edu/) are provided at 250m resolution. This data product contains spatially interpolated maps with information on the skill of the statistical downscaling method. These data files and maps serve as a guidance for the user, in which regions the downscaled rainfall scenarios come with lower or higher confidence. In addition the product provides maps in 3km resolution with statistics on the frequency of future rainfall anomalies in five distinct categories: very dry, dry, neutral, wet, very wet conditions (details are provided in the accompanying README file that is part of this distribution). Taken together, these spatially interpolated maps provide insight into the potential rainfall changes in Hawaii that can be expected under the future climate change scenarios of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Users of this data product are referred to compare these results to a related dynamical downscaling climate change project [details to be filled in here by USGS/PICSC database managers]

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