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Southwest Forest Vulnerability Index: CMIP5‑Informed Climate and Fire Vulnerability Modeling for 2041 - 2080
We obtained the updated downscaled climate projections for all of California using the Basin Characterization Model. We used this to model forest vulnerability at a 270 m grain size for California. We characterized forest cover for California using the CalVeg land cover map. In parallel, we used 4km2 CMIP5 downscaled climate models for the entirety of the Southwestern US and the Landfire vegetation cover map (300m pixels). We used the climate envelope modeling formatted as we had previously vetted for a project in the southern Sierra Nevada. We extended our approach across four spatial scales: (a) The southern Sierra Nevada PACE boundary; (b) of 9 the Sierra Nevada ecosystem; (c) California; and (d) the southwestern US (CA, NV, UR, AZ, and the portions of NM and CO that are within the Colorado River drainage. Four projected climate scenarios were evaluated for this project: 1) GCM : MRI-CGCM3, RCP45; 2) GCM : MRI-CGCM3, RCP85; 3)GCM : MIROC-ESM-CHEM, RCP45; 4)GCM : MIROC-ESM-CHEM, RCP85. For each scenario, two future time periods were modeled (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). The primary output product is a set of vegetation exposure rasters (see "exposure" folder), which contain the exposure scores for every 300 x 300 meter cell on the landscape. These can be spatially associated with the modeled vegetation types using the vegetation raster ("landfire_veg_sw_300m.tif"). See the XML metadata files associated with each raster file for additional information specific to the dataset.
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Complete Metadata
| accessLevel | public |
|---|---|
| bureauCode |
[ "010:12" ] |
| contactPoint |
{ "fn": "Mark Scwartz", "@type": "vcard:Contact", "hasEmail": "mailto:mwschwartz@ucdavis.edu" } |
| description | We obtained the updated downscaled climate projections for all of California using the Basin Characterization Model. We used this to model forest vulnerability at a 270 m grain size for California. We characterized forest cover for California using the CalVeg land cover map. In parallel, we used 4km2 CMIP5 downscaled climate models for the entirety of the Southwestern US and the Landfire vegetation cover map (300m pixels). We used the climate envelope modeling formatted as we had previously vetted for a project in the southern Sierra Nevada. We extended our approach across four spatial scales: (a) The southern Sierra Nevada PACE boundary; (b) of 9 the Sierra Nevada ecosystem; (c) California; and (d) the southwestern US (CA, NV, UR, AZ, and the portions of NM and CO that are within the Colorado River drainage. Four projected climate scenarios were evaluated for this project: 1) GCM : MRI-CGCM3, RCP45; 2) GCM : MRI-CGCM3, RCP85; 3)GCM : MIROC-ESM-CHEM, RCP45; 4)GCM : MIROC-ESM-CHEM, RCP85. For each scenario, two future time periods were modeled (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). The primary output product is a set of vegetation exposure rasters (see "exposure" folder), which contain the exposure scores for every 300 x 300 meter cell on the landscape. These can be spatially associated with the modeled vegetation types using the vegetation raster ("landfire_veg_sw_300m.tif"). See the XML metadata files associated with each raster file for additional information specific to the dataset. |
| distribution |
[ { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Digital Data", "format": "XML", "accessURL": "https://doi.org/10.5066/P1DZPKSV", "mediaType": "application/http", "description": "Landing page for access to the data" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Original Metadata", "format": "XML", "mediaType": "text/xml", "description": "The metadata original format", "downloadURL": "https://data.usgs.gov/datacatalog/metadata/USGS.7032453e-d329-4e33-9008-d40c154686e6.xml" } ] |
| identifier | http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/USGS_7032453e-d329-4e33-9008-d40c154686e6 |
| keyword |
[ "Arizona", "California", "Colorado", "New Mexico", "USGS:7032453e-d329-4e33-9008-d40c154686e6", "Utah", "biota", "climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere", "environment", "exposure", "external research support", "fires", "geospatial datasets", "modeling", "pre-SM502.8", "rcp45", "rcp85", "vegetation", "vulnerability", "worldclim" ] |
| modified | 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z |
| publisher |
{ "name": "U.S. Geological Survey", "@type": "org:Organization" } |
| spatial | -124.4800, 31.2700, -102.0000, 42.0000 |
| theme |
[ "geospatial" ] |
| title | Southwest Forest Vulnerability Index: CMIP5‑Informed Climate and Fire Vulnerability Modeling for 2041 - 2080 |
