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Southwest Forest Vulnerability Index: CMIP5‑Informed Climate and Fire Vulnerability Modeling for 2041 - 2080

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: August 01, 2026 at 05:56 AM | Dataset Last Updated: July 27, 2026 at 12:00 AM
We obtained the updated downscaled climate projections for all of California using the Basin Characterization Model. We used this to model forest vulnerability at a 270 m grain size for California. We characterized forest cover for California using the CalVeg land cover map. In parallel, we used 4km2 CMIP5 downscaled climate models for the entirety of the Southwestern US and the Landfire vegetation cover map (300m pixels). We used the climate envelope modeling formatted as we had previously vetted for a project in the southern Sierra Nevada. We extended our approach across four spatial scales: (a) The southern Sierra Nevada PACE boundary; (b) of 9 the Sierra Nevada ecosystem; (c) California; and (d) the southwestern US (CA, NV, UR, AZ, and the portions of NM and CO that are within the Colorado River drainage.

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