Source Attribution of PM2.5 Health Benefits over Northern Hemisphere Using Adjoint of Hemispheric CMAQ

Abstract copied from manuscript April 25: The adjoint of the U.S. EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is extended for hemispheric scale applications and is used to estimate location-specific health impacts from primary PM2.5, and PM2.5 precursor emissions (NH3, NOX and SO2). We estimate the monetized health burden due to mortality caused by chronic PM2.5 exposure among adults living in the northern hemisphere, using a generalized concentration-response function. The health impact sensitivities show large spatial variability over the northern hemisphere and exhibit a great deal of seasonal variability, especially for inorganic precursor emissions. The largest marginal impacts are seen for NH3 and primary PM2.5. The estimated health impacts for a 10% reduction in emissions reveal a hemispheric burden of 513,700 avoided mortality (0.9% of global mortality) and monetized health benefits at above 1.2 trillion USD2016. The largest regional contribution to hemispheric mortality is found to be in East and South Asia, particularly China and India. Monetized health burdens are estimated to be highest in China and Europe while it was relatively similar in India as in Canada and the United States. Sectoral source contribution analysis demonstrates that the sectoral emissions of agriculture and residential are the largest contributors to the northern hemispheric scale health burden, however, regional differences exist in the results. Examining location- and sector-specific health impacts can inform more effective regulatory measures. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: These files are too large for ScienceHub. It can be accessed through the following means: These are available from the corresponding author upon request. Format: CMAQ outputs formatted as IOAPI with attribution results. These are available from the corresponding author upon request. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Oztaner, Y.B., S. Zhao, B. Henderson, R. Mathur, and A. Hakami. Source Attribution of PM2.5 Health Benefits Over Northern Hemisphere Using Adjoint of Hemispheric CMAQ. GeoHealth. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, USA, 10(1): e2025GH001533, (2026).

[
  "020:00"
]

{
  "fn": "Barron Henderson",
  "hasEmail": "mailto:henderson.barron@epa.gov"
}

[]

[
  "Aerosols/particulates",
  "Attributable Risk",
  "air quality health impacts"
]

[
  "020:000"
]

{
  "name": "U.S. Environmental Protection Agency",
  "subOrganizationOf": {
    "name": "U.S. Government"
  }
}

[
  "https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gh001533"
]

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