This dataset contains a 30-year rolling average of annual average minimum and maximum temperatures from the four models and two greenhouse gas (RCP) scenarios included in the four model ensemble for the years 1950-2099.The year identified is the mid-point of the 30-year average. eg. The year 2050 includes the values from 2036 to 2065.

The downscaling and selection of models for inclusion in ten and four model ensembles is described in Pierce et al. 2018, but summarized here. Thirty two global climate models (GCMs) were identified to meet the modeling requirements. From those, ten that closely simulate California’s climate were selected for additional analysis (Table 1, Pierce et al. 2018) and to form a ten model ensemble. From the ten model ensemble, four models, forming a four model ensemble, were identified to provide coverage of the range of potential climate outcomes in California.  The models in the four model ensemble and their general climate projection for California are:

HadGEM2-ES (warm/dry),CanESM2 (average), CNRM-CM5 (cooler/wetter), and MIROC5 the model least like the others to improve coverage of the range of outcomes.

These data were downloaded from Cal-Adapt and prepared for use within CA Nature by California Natural Resource Agency and ESRI staff.

Cal-Adapt. (2018). LOCA Derived Data [GeoTIFF]. Data derived from LOCA Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections. Cal-Adapt website developed by University of California at Berkeley’s Geospatial Innovation Facility under contract with the California Energy Commission. Retrieved  from https://cal-adapt.org/

Pierce, D. W., J. F. Kalansky, and D. R. Cayan, (Scripps Institution of Oceanography). 2018. Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CNRA-CEC-2018-006.