Season-Average Price Forecasts

Metadata Updated: November 10, 2020

This data product provides three Excel file spreadsheet models that use futures prices to forecast the U.S. season-average price received and the implied CCP for three major field crops (corn, soybeans, and wheat).

Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average Price and Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

Farmers and policymakers are interested in the level of counter-cyclical payments (CCPs) provided by the 2008 Farm Act to producers of selected commodities. CCPs are based on the season-average price received by farmers. (For more information on CCPs, see the ERS 2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side, Title I: Commodity Programs.)

This data product provides three Excel spreadsheet models that use futures prices to forecast the U.S. season-average price received and the implied CCP for three major field crops (corn, soybeans, and wheat). Users can view the model forecasts or create their own forecast by inserting different values for futures prices, basis values, or marketing weights. Example computations and data are provided on the Documentation page.

Spreadsheet Models

For each of the three major U.S. field crops, the Excel spreadsheet model computes a forecast for:

  1. the national-level season-average price received by farmers and
  2. the implied counter-cyclical payment rate.

Note: the model forecasts are not official USDA forecasts. See USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for official USDA season-average price forecasts. See USDA's Farm Service Agency information for official USDA CCP rates.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: Creative Commons CCZero

Downloads & Resources

References

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts/historical-forecasts.aspx

Dates

Metadata Created Date November 10, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 10, 2020
Data Update Frequency R/P1M

Metadata Source

Harvested from USDA JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 10, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 10, 2020
Publisher Economic Research Service, Department of Agriculture
Unique Identifier Unknown
Maintainer
Identifier USDA-ERS-00088
Data First Published 2020-04-09
Data Last Modified 2020-07-10
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency R/P1M
Bureau Code 005:13
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Data Dictionary http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts/documentation.aspx
Harvest Object Id 4d860fc7-fa98-4749-8ef2-84f3a644b7d9
Harvest Source Id d3fafa34-0cb9-48f1-ab1d-5b5fdc783806
Harvest Source Title USDA JSON
Homepage URL http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts.aspx
License https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Program Code 005:041
Related Documents http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts/historical-forecasts.aspx
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash d2021bea0c7fe1aaa2dee991a420fe77d893c1ec
Source Schema Version 1.1

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