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Report from S&T Project 1895: A tool for bias correcting spatially distributed streamflow simulations with process-dependent corrections

Published by Bureau of Reclamation | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: April 18, 2026 at 01:12 AM | Dataset Last Updated: January 26, 2023 at 06:04 PM
Water resources planning requires statistically unbiased predictions of streamflow. Modeled streamflow is commonly used as input to water resources models to evaluate operational scenarios in Reclamation long-term planning studies, for example Basin Studies under the WaterSMART Program. However, systematic errors(e.g., incorrect process descriptions, errors in observed data, and uncertainties around model parameters) are ever-present in our predictions. These biases in modeled streamflow cascade into issues with water resources model simulations, ultimately making them unusable in some cases. To account for these sources of systematic error post-processing techniques, referred to as bias correction, are used to reduce the effects of these errors. Existing streamflow bias correction techniques have several shortcomings which we address in this work. In this project, we developed a bias correction technique that addresses two issues. First, previous bias-correction techniques generally ignore the relationship of streamflow across the river network, in turn destroying the spatial-temporal consistency of streamflow. Second, previous methods are commonly built on simple mappings between reference and simulated flows without accounting for systematic errors that vary in time. This new approach preserves spatial consistency and provides options for process-dependent corrections. Further, this new approach was tested for future climate change scenarios, acknowledging the likelihood of non-stationarity in streamflow biases.

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