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Projections of shoreline change of current and future (2005-2100) sea-level rise scenarios for the U.S. Atlantic Coast

Metadata Updated: September 12, 2025

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Scenarios include 25, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, and 300 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. Output for SLR of 0 cm is also included, reflective of conditions in 2005, in accordance with recent SLR projections and guidance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; see process steps).Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model (described in Vitousek and others, 2017; 2021; 2023) run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived shoreline (SDS) observations. Shoreline positions from models are generated at pre-determined cross-shore transects and output includes different cases covering important model behaviors (cases are described in process steps of metadata; see citations listed in the Cross References section for more details on the methodology and supporting information). This model shows change in shoreline positions along transects, considering sea level, wave conditions, along-shore/cross-shore sediment transport, long-term trends due to sediment supply, and estimated variability due to unresolved processes (as described in Vitousek and others, 2021). Variability associated with complex coastal processes (for example, beach cusps/undulations and shore-attached sandbars) are included via a noise parameter in a model, which is tuned using observations of shoreline change at each transect and run in an ensemble of 200 simulations; this approach allows for a representation of statistical variability in a model that is assimilated with sequences of noisy observations. The model synthesizes and improves upon numerous, well-established shoreline models in the scientific literature; processes and methods are described in this metadata (see lineage and process steps), but also described in more detail in Vitousek and others 2017, 2021, and 2023. KMZ data are readily viewable in Google Earth. For best display of results, it is recommended to turn off any 3D features or terrain. For technical users and researchers, shapefile and KMZ data can be ingested into geographic information system (GIS) software such as Global Mapper or QGIS.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date September 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date September 12, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date September 12, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-305615c0-6d9d-46b4-95ed-e33be824aba9
Data Last Modified 2024-05-10T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 1dad8514-a718-4ac6-9daf-5e9a12515d6c
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -82.11192, 26.06347, -75.32334, 38.81563
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash dcd57bb3feb9fdb3aa12b204977d3a968045c2d2b283b6bdc2fe7c85237030a3
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -82.11192, 26.06347, -82.11192, 38.81563, -75.32334, 38.81563, -75.32334, 26.06347, -82.11192, 26.06347}

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