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Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise

Metadata Updated: November 26, 2025

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived shoreline (SDS) observations across the state. Scenarios include 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. Output for SLR of 0 cm is also included, reflective of conditions in 2000. This model shows change in shoreline positions along pre-determined cross-shore transects, considering sea level, wave conditions, along-shore/cross-shore sediment transport, long-term trends due to sediment supply, and estimated variability due to unresolved processes (as described in Vitousek and others, 2021). Variability associated with complex coastal processes (for example, beach cusps/undulations and shore-attached sandbars) are included via a noise parameter in a model, which is tuned using observations of shoreline change at each transect and run in an ensemble of 200 simulations; this approach allows for a representation of statistical variability in a model that is assimilated with sequences of noisy observations. The model synthesizes and improves upon numerous, well-established shoreline models in the scientific literature; processes and methods are described in this metadata (see lineage and process steps), but also described in more detail in Vitousek and others 2017, 2021, and 2023. Output includes different cases covering important model behaviors (cases are described in process steps of this metadata). KMZ data are readily viewable in Google Earth. For best display of results, it is recommended to turn off any 3D features or terrain. For technical users and researchers, shapefile and KMZ data can be ingested into geographic information system (GIS) software such as Global Mapper or QGIS.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date September 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date November 26, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date November 26, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-63f905e7d34e4f7eda45c8f3
Data Last Modified 2024-10-09T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 7700e0c4-0311-4a37-9f47-11bb37b9817b
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 885d9fa88be5d622950e8b11f52b3e94c7df5c9583e73c7565c5cd4417c9b095
Source Schema Version 1.1

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