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    • Projections of Permafrost Thaw and Carbon Release for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299

    Metadata Updated: September 18, 2025

    This dataset consists of an ensemble of model projections from 1901 to 2299 for the northern hemisphere permafrost domain. The model projections include monthly average values for a common set of diagnostic outputs at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. The model simulations resulted from a synthesis effort organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the carbon cycle in permafrost regions in the high northern latitudes. The model teams used different historical input weather data, but most used driver data developed by the Climate Research Unit - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) as modified for the Multiscale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The teams scaled the driver data for the projections using output from global climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The synthesis evaluated the terrestrial carbon cycle in the modern era and projected future emissions of carbon under two climate warming scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85) from CMIP5. RCP45 represents emissions resulting in a global climate close to the target climate in the Paris Accord. RCP85 represents unconstrained greenhouse gas emissions.

    Access & Use Information

    Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

    Downloads & Resources

    Dates

    Metadata Created Date April 11, 2025
    Metadata Updated Date September 18, 2025

    Metadata Source

    Harvested from NASA Data.json

    Other Data Resources

    Additional Metadata

    Resource Type Dataset
    Metadata Created Date April 11, 2025
    Metadata Updated Date September 18, 2025
    Publisher ORNL_DAAC
    Maintainer
    Identifier 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1872
    Data Last Modified 2025-09-11
    Category Earth Science
    Public Access Level public
    Bureau Code 026:00
    Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
    Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
    Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
    Harvest Object Id 74f0a75a-ec9a-46f3-ac08-ebe7ede8db7c
    Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
    Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
    Homepage URL https://search.earthdata.nasa.gov/search?q=PermafrostThaw_CarbonEmissions_1872&ac=true
    Old Spatial {"WestBoundingCoordinate":-180.0,"NorthBoundingCoordinate":90.0,"EastBoundingCoordinate":180.0,"SouthBoundingCoordinate":-90.0},"CARTESIAN"
    Program Code 026:000
    Source Datajson Identifier True
    Source Hash d997d26477239d8efcc8ee0ff37e7e36361c1a287d14ec413097e53a4f6083fe
    Source Schema Version 1.1
    Spatial
    Temporal 1901-01-01/1901-01-01

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