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Projections of Permafrost Thaw and Carbon Release for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299

Metadata Updated: December 6, 2023

This dataset consists of an ensemble of model projections from 1901 to 2299 for the northern hemisphere permafrost domain. The model projections include monthly average values for a common set of diagnostic outputs at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. The model simulations resulted from a synthesis effort organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the carbon cycle in permafrost regions in the high northern latitudes. The model teams used different historical input weather data, but most used driver data developed by the Climate Research Unit - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) as modified for the Multiscale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The teams scaled the driver data for the projections using output from global climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The synthesis evaluated the terrestrial carbon cycle in the modern era and projected future emissions of carbon under two climate warming scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85) from CMIP5. RCP45 represents emissions resulting in a global climate close to the target climate in the Paris Accord. RCP85 represents unconstrained greenhouse gas emissions.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date December 1, 2022
Metadata Updated Date December 6, 2023

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

Graphic Preview

Changes in simulated permafrost dynamics. Simulated cumulative changes in (A and B) permafrost area for active layer thickness (ALT) less than 3 m from 2010-2299 and (C and D) the sensitivity of simulated changes in permafrost area to changes in mean annual air temperature for RCP4.5 (left column) and RCP8.5 (right column) model projections. Source: McGuire et al. (2018; Fig. 2)

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date December 1, 2022
Metadata Updated Date December 6, 2023
Publisher ORNL_DAAC
Maintainer
Identifier C2254686682-ORNL_CLOUD
Data First Published 2022-04-20
Language en-US
Data Last Modified 2023-07-17
Category ABoVE, geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://data.nasa.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Citation McGuire, D.A., D.M. Lawrence, C.D. Koven, J.S. Clein, E. Burke, G.S. Chen, E. Jafarov, A.H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D.J. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, P. Ciais, I. Gouttevin, D.J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, J.C. Moore, V.E. Romanovsky, C. Schädel, K. Schaefer, and Q. Zhuang. 2022. Projections of Permafrost Thaw and Carbon Release for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 1901-2299. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1872
Graphic Preview Description Changes in simulated permafrost dynamics. Simulated cumulative changes in (A and B) permafrost area for active layer thickness (ALT) less than 3 m from 2010-2299 and (C and D) the sensitivity of simulated changes in permafrost area to changes in mean annual air temperature for RCP4.5 (left column) and RCP8.5 (right column) model projections. Source: McGuire et al. (2018; Fig. 2)
Graphic Preview File https://daac.ornl.gov/ABOVE/guides/PermafrostThaw_CarbonEmissions_Fig1.jpg
Harvest Object Id 246cbabe-cb8f-4c96-b93f-f3459d9c15a3
Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Homepage URL https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1872
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -180.0 -90.0 180.0 90.0
Program Code 026:001
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash f54f7f76b975664a78e51b1c57156df8edcca3e5e038502616b8a25b5abbb9b8
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial
Temporal 1901-01-01T00:00:00Z/2300-12-31T23:59:59Z

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