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Projected Distribution of Six Invasive Species Under Four Future Climate Scenarios (2050)

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: September 10, 2026 at 10:15 PM | Dataset Last Updated: February 04, 2026 at 12:00 AM
This dataset contains projected distributions for six non-native invasive tree and shrub species—autumn olive, bush honeysuckles, Callery pear, princess tree, privet, and tree-of-heaven—under four climate change scenarios, provided as ASCII (ASC) raster grids. Species distribution models were fitted using MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) with occurrence data from EDDMapS and FIA and seven bioclimatic variables. Future projections represent two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) paired with two General Circulation Models (ACCESS-CM2 and HadGEM3-GC31), centered on 2050. Each ASC file contains a continuous suitability value (0–1) per grid cell at ~0.0083° (~1-km) resolution, with NoData coded as –9999. These projections indicate potential habitat suitability for each species under alternative climate futures and are designed for use in regional risk assessments and management planning.

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