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Projected current and future plant distributions in the Pacific Northwest

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: September 12, 2026 at 11:52 PM | Dataset Last Updated: September 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Projected current and future distributions of Abies amabilis (Pacific silver fir), Abies grandis (Grand fir), Abies procera (Noble fir), Acer macophylla (Big leaf maple), Larix lyallii (Subalpine larch), Larix occidentalis (Western larch), Pinus albicaulis (Whitebark pine), Quercus garryana (Garry oak), Taxus brevifolia (Pacific yew), Thuja plicata (Western red cedar) based on empirical bioclimatic models. Tree distributions models were built using 42 climate and bioclimatic variables from Climate Western North America climate dataset (www.climatevulnerability.org). I used random forest to project USGS range maps (http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/data/little/) for historical (1961-1990) and five general circulation models (GCMs) for the SRES A2 emissions scenario. GCMs included: BCCR BCM2.0 (2070-2099), CCCMA CGCM3 (2070-2099), CSIRO MK 3.0 (2070-2099), INMCM 3.0 (2070-2099), and MIROC3.2 MEDRES (2070-2099).

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