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Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Flame Length Probability 2 (Image Service)

Metadata Updated: November 14, 2025

National data on burn probability (BP) and conditional flame-length probability (FLP) were generated for the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Hawaii using a geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the USDA Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. The FSim system includes modules for weather generation, wildfire occurrence, fire growth, and fire suppression. FSim is designed to simulate the occurrence and growth of wildfires under tens of thousands of hypothetical contemporary fire seasons in order to estimate the probability of a given area (i.e., pixel) burning under current (end of 2020) landscape conditions and fire management practices. The data presented here represent modeled BP and FLPs for the United States (US) at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution. Flame-length probability is estimated for six standard Fire Intensity Levels. The six FILs correspond to flame-length classes as follows: FLP1 = < 2 feet (ft); FLP2 = 2 < 4 ft.; FLP3 = 4 < 6 ft.; FLP4 = 6 < 8 ft.; FLP5 = 8 < 12 ft.; FLP6 = 12+ ft. Because they indicate conditional probabilities (i.e., representing the likelihood of burning at a certain intensity level, given that a fire occurs), the FLP data must be used in conjunction with the BP data for risk assessment.These data are a newer edition of the Short et al. (2016, 2020) data publications. This third edition is based on circa 2020 landscape data, which were the most current LANDFIRE products available at the time of production. The methods used to generate these data generally followed the same process used in previous editions, with improvements made at specific steps. The process steps outlined in the Data Quality, Lineage section of this metadata document are expanded from previous editions to more fully explain each step and provide additional details on methods for this edition. Beyond the newer input landscape data from LANDFIRE, we also used updated datasets for other inputs such as fire occurrence, observed gridded daily weather, and wind data from weather stations. To better capture recent climate conditions, we also shortened the time period of historical weather records used to inform the generation of simulated weather streams for simulation runs, using the most recent 15 years this time (2006-2020) rather than full record from 1972-2012 in the second edition. See the process steps described in the Data Quality, Lineage section for more details.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: Creative Commons Attribution

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Dates

Metadata Created Date November 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date November 14, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from USDA JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date November 14, 2025
Publisher U.S. Forest Service
Maintainer
Identifier https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=1ca31709636745f7bbacd90c87ea3f69
Data First Published 2025-10-03
Data Last Modified 2025-10-03
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 005:96
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 5c7afc4f-8572-4943-8372-b992001e7e41
Harvest Source Id d3fafa34-0cb9-48f1-ab1d-5b5fdc783806
Harvest Source Title USDA JSON
Homepage URL https://data-usfs.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/usfs::probabilistic-wildfire-risk-flame-length-probability-2-image-service
License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -180.0000,18.8388,-64.0513,71.5630
Program Code 005:059
Progresscode onGoing
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 68a8a7ac851a74b1f0adfd139e635b76b204ccfdca08068567c66dcdd293b9a4
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -180.0000, 18.8388, -180.0000, 71.5630, -64.0513, 71.5630, -64.0513, 18.8388, -180.0000, 18.8388}

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