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Predictive Models of Cetacean Densities in the California Current Ecosystem, 2020

Metadata Updated: May 24, 2025

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important management tools for highly mobile marine species because they provide spatially and temporally explicit information on animal distribution. Two prevalent modeling frameworks used to develop SDMs for marine species are Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs), but comparative studies have rarely been conducted; most rely on presence-only data; and few have explored how features such as species distribution characteristics affect model performance. Since the majority of marine species BRTs have been used to predict habitat suitability, we first compared BRTs to GAMs that used presence/absence as the response variable. We then compared results from these habitat suitability models to GAMs that predict species density (animals km-2) because density models built with a subset of the data used here have previously received extensive validation. We compared both the explanatory power (i.e., model goodness-of-fit) and predictive power (i.e., performance on a novel dataset) of the GAMs and BRTs for a taxonomically diverse suite of cetacean species using a robust set of systematic survey data (1991-2014) within the California Current Ecosystem. Both BRTs and GAMs were successful at describing overall distribution patterns throughout the study area for the majority of species considered, but when predicting on novel data, the density GAMs exhibited substantially greater predictive power than both the presence/absence GAMs and BRTs, likely due to both the different response variables and fitting algorithms. Our results provide an improved understanding of some of the strengths and limitations of models developed using these two methods. These results can be used by modelers developing SDMs and resource managers tasked with the spatial management of marine species to determine the best modeling technique for their question of interest.

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License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Dates

Metadata Date May 15, 2025
Metadata Created Date October 19, 2024
Metadata Updated Date May 24, 2025
Reference Date(s) May 11, 2020 (publication)
Frequency Of Update irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from NMFS OST

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Date May 15, 2025
Metadata Created Date October 19, 2024
Metadata Updated Date May 24, 2025
Reference Date(s) May 11, 2020 (publication)
Responsible Party (Point of Contact, Custodian)
Contact Email
Guid gov.noaa.nmfs.inport:63298
Access Constraints Cite As: NMFS Office of Science and Technology, [Date of Access]: Predictive Models of Cetacean Densities in the California Current Ecosystem, 2020 [Data Date Range], https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/63298., Use Constraints: *** No Warranty*** The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of these data. NMFS is providing these data "as is," and NMFS disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. It is strongly recommended that careful attention be paid to the contents of the metadata file associated with these data to evaluate dataset limitations, restrictions or intended use. In no event will NMFS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of these data.
Bbox East Long -117.097556
Bbox North Lat 48.5061
Bbox South Lat 30.05
Bbox West Long -131
Coupled Resource
Frequency Of Update irregular
Harvest Object Id ca1639ea-2849-4d7f-953c-408bd243c07d
Harvest Source Id f9290d59-efab-4b58-a20f-a0e82126966c
Harvest Source Title NMFS OST
Licence NOAA provides no warranty, nor accepts any liability occurring from any incomplete, incorrect, or misleading data, or from any incorrect, incomplete, or misleading use of the data. It is the responsibility of the user to determine whether or not the data is suitable for the intended purpose.
Lineage
Metadata Language eng
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": [[[-131.0, 30.05], [-117.097556, 30.05], [-117.097556, 48.5061], [-131.0, 48.5061], [-131.0, 30.05]]]}
Progress completed
Spatial Data Service Type
Spatial Reference System EPSG::4326
Spatial Harvester True
Temporal Extent Begin 1991-07-01T00:00:00Z
Temporal Extent End 1991-11-30T00:00:00Z

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