New York State Sea Level Rise and Future Floodplain Extent: Beginning 2000

The Sea Level Rise Viewer provides estimated projections of the extent of future sea-level rise and storm surge on inundation and coastal flooding that could occur in portions of New York State. The layers include all combinations of eight future sea level rise scenarios (0, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 inches) and four annual chance flood probabilities: 10% chance (10-year flood event), 2% chance (50-year flood event), 1% chance (100-year flood event), and 0.2% chance (500-year flood event). Coverage area is the tidally influenced shoreline of New York State, with the exception of New York City, which has its own sea level rise maps. Data layers include the following counties: Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Nassau, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Suffolk, Ulster, and Westchester. Baseline flood water surface elevations corresponding to each annual flood probability were used from FEMA Flood Insurance Studies. High-resolution LiDAR-based digital elevation models were used to represent the land surface. The sea level rise scenarios were applied to the baseline flood elevations to develop future flood elevations. The future floodplains were then mapped by intersecting the new flood elevations with the LiDAR topography. While the analysis includes coastal storm surge via the flood recurrence intervals, it does not account for changes in storm climatology, dynamic coastal processes, landscapes, or hydraulic conditions under future conditions. This mapping project chose to map future sea level rise in 6- to 12-inch increments, rather than mapping specific sea level rise projections. This choice was made due to resource constraints as well as to extend the utility of the maps even as the projections were revised as climate science improved. This modeling effort was completed in 2016. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) offers objective information and analysis, innovative programs, technical expertise, and support to help New Yorkers increase energy efficiency, save money, use renewable energy, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. To learn more about NYSERDA’s programs, visit https://nyserda.ny.gov or follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, or Instagram.

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