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Monte Carlo Tool

Metadata Updated: July 29, 2022

This tool is used to implement Monte Carlo analysis, which uses probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainty. This tool is developed to follow the simulation segment of ASTM E1369. This technique involves a method of model sampling. Specification involves defining which variables are to be simulated, the distribution of each of these variables, and the number of iterations performed. The software then randomly samples from the probabilities for each input variable of interest. Three common distributions that are used include triangular, normal, and uniform.

To illustrate, consider a situation where a firm has to purchase 100 ball bearings at $10 each; however, the price can vary plus or minus $2. In order to address this situation, one can use a Monte Carlo analysis where the price is varied using a triangular distribution with $12 being the maximum, $8 being the minimum, and $10 being the most likely. Moreover, the anticipated results should have a low value of approximately $800 (i.e., 100 ball bearings at $8 each) and a high value of approximately $1200 (i.e., 100 ball bearings at $12 each). The triangular distribution would make it so the $8 price and $12 price have lower likelihoods. For a Monte Carlo analysis, one must select the number of iterations that the simulation will run. Each iteration is similar to rolling a pair of dice, albeit, with the probabilities having been altered. In this case, the dice determine the price of the bearings. The number of iterations is the number of times this simulation is calculated (i.e., the number of times the dice is rolled).

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: See this page for license information.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date March 11, 2021
Metadata Updated Date July 29, 2022

Metadata Source

Harvested from NIST

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date March 11, 2021
Metadata Updated Date July 29, 2022
Publisher National Institute of Standards and Technology
Maintainer
Identifier 84ADF76F1D1F6427E05324570681129F2042
Data First Published 2019-08-02
Language en
Data Last Modified 2019-03-22 00:00:00
Category Manufacturing:Lean manufacturing, Manufacturing:Manufacturing systems design and analysis, Manufacturing:Factory operations planning and control
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 006:55
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id e6878635-6414-400e-8980-50482e24afae
Harvest Source Id 74e175d9-66b3-4323-ac98-e2a90eeb93c0
Harvest Source Title NIST
Homepage URL https://www.nist.gov/services-resources/software/monte-carlo-tool
License https://www.nist.gov/open/license
Program Code 006:045
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 8237c9659b19301bae80721f139e3282c2abbb96
Source Schema Version 1.1

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