Modeled Utility-Scale Solar+Storage Operations 2020-2024
In this project, we model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities using a linear optimizer with perfect price and generation foresight and are sharing the hourly solar and storage generation profiles for our sample here using the base scenario.
Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024.
In the full briefing compare the modeled optimized wholesale market value with the value of standalone PV, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available. Under optimized dispatch with perfect price foresight, adding batteries could have increased the national generation-weighted market value of solar from $29/MWh to $75/MWh in 2024, primarily through higher capacity value, followed by ancillary-service and energy shifting revenue. For projects with available cost data, optimized PV+S market value exceeded levelized generation cost by nearly $35/MWh from 2020-2024 when accounting for tax credits. Empirical operations of 51 projects captured substantial but incomplete value: in 2024, observed PV+S operations realized $39/MWh, or 62% of modeled optimized value, with the storage premium reaching only 38% of its optimized potential.
The gap between optimized and empirical value reflects multiple barriers that prevent projects from offering their full value to the bulk power system, including: limited participation in wholesale markets such as ancillary services that remain lucrative in some regions; tax-driven grid-charging restrictions for older projects; simplistic rule-based dispatch (charge in the middle of the day and discharge in the evening); imperfect price and generation forecasting; weak or missing price signals in non-ISO regions; and dispatch incentives tied to contracts or state programs rather than bulk-system value. These findings suggest that PV+S can be cost-effective from a wholesale-market perspective, but that improved market participation, forecasting, and alignment of operational incentives are needed for projects to realize their full system value proposition.
Resources
6 resources available
-
Utility Scale Solar and Storage Operations Homepage
HTML -
OEDI PVS Dispatch Data README.md
MD -
Plant-level hourly solar and storage profiles without grid charging.zip
ZIP -
Plant-level hourly solar and storage profiles with grid charging.zip
ZIP -
LBNL 2026- Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids Year 1 Briefing.pdf
PDF -
Optimized Annual PV and PVS Market Values.xlsx
XLSX
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Complete Metadata
| @type | dcat:Dataset |
|---|---|
| accessLevel | public |
| bureauCode |
[ "019:20" ] |
| contactPoint |
{ "fn": "Joachim Seel", "@type": "vcard:Contact", "hasEmail": "mailto:jseel@lbl.gov" } |
| dataQuality |
true
|
| description | In this project, we model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities using a linear optimizer with perfect price and generation foresight and are sharing the hourly solar and storage generation profiles for our sample here using the base scenario. Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. In the full briefing compare the modeled optimized wholesale market value with the value of standalone PV, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available. Under optimized dispatch with perfect price foresight, adding batteries could have increased the national generation-weighted market value of solar from $29/MWh to $75/MWh in 2024, primarily through higher capacity value, followed by ancillary-service and energy shifting revenue. For projects with available cost data, optimized PV+S market value exceeded levelized generation cost by nearly $35/MWh from 2020-2024 when accounting for tax credits. Empirical operations of 51 projects captured substantial but incomplete value: in 2024, observed PV+S operations realized $39/MWh, or 62% of modeled optimized value, with the storage premium reaching only 38% of its optimized potential. The gap between optimized and empirical value reflects multiple barriers that prevent projects from offering their full value to the bulk power system, including: limited participation in wholesale markets such as ancillary services that remain lucrative in some regions; tax-driven grid-charging restrictions for older projects; simplistic rule-based dispatch (charge in the middle of the day and discharge in the evening); imperfect price and generation forecasting; weak or missing price signals in non-ISO regions; and dispatch incentives tied to contracts or state programs rather than bulk-system value. These findings suggest that PV+S can be cost-effective from a wholesale-market perspective, but that improved market participation, forecasting, and alignment of operational incentives are needed for projects to realize their full system value proposition. |
| distribution |
[ { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Utility Scale Solar and Storage Operations Homepage", "format": "HTML", "accessURL": "https://emp.lbl.gov/utility-scale-storage", "mediaType": "text/html", "description": "Main project page where results from the DOE funded research project are published." }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "OEDI PVS Dispatch Data README.md", "format": "md", "mediaType": "application/octet-stream", "description": "A readme describing the plant-level hourly optimization results.", "downloadURL": "https://data.openei.org/files/8687/OEDI_PVS_dispatch_data_README.md" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Plant-level hourly solar and storage profiles without grid charging.zip", "format": "zip", "mediaType": "application/zip", "description": "Modeled Hourly Optimized Solar and Storage Profiles 2020-2024. Scenario: Grid Charge False DegThresh 10 AS True Market DA.", "downloadURL": "https://data.openei.org/files/8687/Grid%20Charge%20False%20DegThresh%2010%20AS%20True%20Market%20DA.zip" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Plant-level hourly solar and storage profiles with grid charging.zip", "format": "zip", "mediaType": "application/zip", "description": "Modeled Hourly Optimized Solar and Storage Profiles 2020-2024. Scenario: Grid Charge True DegThresh 10 AS True Market DA. ", "downloadURL": "https://data.openei.org/files/8687/Grid%20Charge%20True%20DegThresh%2010%20AS%20True%20Market%20DA.zip" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "LBNL 2026- Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids Year 1 Briefing.pdf", "format": "pdf", "mediaType": "application/pdf", "description": "Research Product of the Year 1 economic valuation of modeled and empirical PV+storage dispatch data covering the years 2020-2024.", "downloadURL": "https://data.openei.org/files/8687/LBNL%202026-%20Identifying%20Barriers%20to%20Solar%20and%20Storage%20Hybrids%20Year%201%20Briefing.pdf" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Optimized Annual PV and PVS Market Values.xlsx", "format": "xlsx", "mediaType": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet", "description": "Summarize annual modeled wholesale market value across energy, capacity, and ancillary service value for US large scale co-located solar+storage projects. Data sources include EIA, FERC, Hitachi, and LBNL PV+S dispatch model.", "downloadURL": "https://data.openei.org/files/8687/Optimized%20Annual%20PV%20and%20PVS%20Market%20Values.xlsx" } ] |
| identifier | https://data.openei.org/submissions/8687 |
| issued | 2026-05-12T06:00:00Z |
| keyword |
[ "LBNL", "PV", "PVS", "United States", "ancillary services", "batteries", "capacity", "capacity value", "data", "energy", "energy value", "generation", "generation profiles", "hourly solar", "linear optimizer", "market", "model", "operations", "optimization", "price", "solar", "storage", "wholesale markets" ] |
| landingPage | https://data.openei.org/submissions/8687 |
| license | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| modified | 2026-05-14T19:58:54Z |
| programCode |
[ "019:000", "019:008" ] |
| projectNumber |
"52952"
|
| projectTitle | Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids |
| publisher |
{ "name": "Lawrence Berkeley National Lab", "@type": "org:Organization" } |
| spatial |
"{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-125.4514,24.5873],[-66.5318,24.5873],[-66.5318,49.2637],[-125.4514,49.2637],[-125.4514,24.5873]]]}"
|
| title | Modeled Utility-Scale Solar+Storage Operations 2020-2024 |
