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Model predictions of biological condition metrics for small streams in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA from 1985 to 2023

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: August 01, 2026 at 06:02 AM | Dataset Last Updated: January 15, 2026 at 12:00 AM
This data release contains predictions of stream biological condition as defined by the Chesapeake basin-wide index of biotic integrity for stream macroinvertebrates (Chessie BIBI) as well as prediction of the percentage of the benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage as 1) Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera less Hydropsychidae, 2) Ephemeroptera, and 3) Clingers using Random Forest machine learning models with landscape data for small streams (≤ 200 km2 in upstream drainage) as defined by the National Hydrography Dataset Plus High Resolution across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). Predictions were made for each year from 1985 to 2023 according to changes in landcover using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and climate from the Daymet 1km Monthly Climate Summaries Version 4 R1 . The Chessie BIBI data used were provided by the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin. Uncertainty was calculated using model prediction intervals. This data release contains five zipped folders: 1) Trends_observed_vs_modeled.zip that contains 4 csv files, r_scripts.zip that contains 15 R scripts, Model_predictions.zip that contains 5 csv files, Trends_models.zip that contains 4 csv files, and bioclim_bug_may15.zip that contains 39 parquet files.

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