Model archive and data for water budget components in Minnesota simulated with the Soil-Water-Balance model for past (1981-2022) and future (2040-2059 and 2080-2099) periods

This data release contains a model archive, ancillary data, and outputs for an application of the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model code (version 2, Westenbroek and others, 2018) to simulate water budget components at a 1-kilometer resolution for the state of Minnesota. The SWB model was calibrated to streamflow and actual evapotranspiration observations in 71 watersheds for 2000 - 2022. Two sets of water budget estimates were simulated by the calibrated Minnesota SWB model. First, water budget components for the historical period of 1981 - 2022 were simulated using historical observed PRISM weather data (PRISM Climate Group and Oregon State University, 2022). Second, water budget components for the periods 1995-2014, 2040-2059, and 2080-2099 were estimated using high-resolution (4-kilometer), dynamically downscaled global climate models (GCMs, Liess and others, 2026). The dynamically downscaled daily data sets were generated for every combination of six GCMs for two periods (mid-century, 2040-59 and late century, 2080-99) and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emissions scenarios (SSP245 [intermediate emissions], SSP370 [high emissions], and SSP585 [very high emissions]). For each of the six GCMs, a daily dataset was also completed for the historical period of 1995-2014. This model archive has 4 child items. Further details about this application of the SWB model can be found in the related primary publication. REFERENCES Liess, S., Roop, H. A., Twine, T. E., Clark, S., Coffman, D., Dolma, D., Farris, A., Fernandez, A., Gorman, J., and Meyer, N. (2026). County-scale climate projections over Minnesota and the effects of lakes. Water Resources Research, 62(2), e2025WR040415. doi.org, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040415. PRISM Climate Group and Oregon State University, 2022, PRISM climate data: Northwest Alliance for Computation Science and Engineering website, accessed November 22, 2022, at https://prism.oregonstate.edu/. Westenbroek, S.M., Engott, J.A., Kelson, V.A., and Hunt, R.J., 2018, SWB version 2.0-A Soil-Water-Balance code for estimating net infiltration and other water-budget components: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chap. A59, 118 p., accessed January 1, 2019, at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A59.

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