Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Skip to content

Metamodeling for Groundwater Age Forecasting in the Lake Michigan Basin

Metadata Updated: July 6, 2024

Groundwater age is an important indicator of groundwater susceptibility to anthropogenic contamination and a key input to statistical models for forecasting water quality. Numerical models can provide estimates of groundwater age, enabling interpretation of measured age tracers. However, to extend to national-scale groundwater systems where numerical models are not routinely available, a more efficient metamodeling approach can provide a less precise but widely applicable estimate of groundwater age, trained to make forecasts based on predictor variables that can be measured independent of numerical models. We trained gradient-boosted regression tree statistical metamodels to MODFLOW/MODPATH derived groundwater age estimates in five inset models in the Lake Michigan Basin, USA. Using high-throughput computing, we explored an exhaustive range of tuning parameters and tested metamodels through cross validation, a 20% holdout, and a round-robin approach among the five inset models withholding each inset model from training and testing on the held-out inset model. Forecast skill--measured by Nash Sutcliffe efficiency--was high for age-related responses in the 20% holdout case (ranging from 0.73 to 0.84). The round robin analysis provided the opportunity to explore extending to unmodeled areas and a greater range of skill indicated the need to evaluate when it is appropriate to apply a metamodel from one region to another. We further explored the ramifications of metamodel simplification achieved through removing predictor variables based on their estimated importance. We found that similar metamodel performance was achievable with a fraction of the candidate set of predictor variables with well-construction variables being most important.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date June 1, 2023
Metadata Updated Date July 6, 2024

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI EDI

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date June 1, 2023
Metadata Updated Date July 6, 2024
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
@Id http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/fc0a830b94fde81a3824aab4b0aa54d7
Identifier USGS:5abd076ee4b081f61abfb735
Data Last Modified 20210701
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://datainventory.doi.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id bec22d73-b2d3-4709-adf0-e70d13c07f84
Harvest Source Id 52bfcc16-6e15-478f-809a-b1bc76f1aeda
Harvest Source Title DOI EDI
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -89.4287109375,41.3025710943056,-85.23193359375001,45.96119
Publisher Hierarchy White House > U.S. Department of the Interior > U.S. Geological Survey
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash f4af6143ab7f7eeeba4606be7d7c889b2359942ac4b2bdaa6e5afe64ba75ed6f
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -89.4287109375, 41.3025710943056, -89.4287109375, 45.96119, -85.23193359375001, 45.96119, -85.23193359375001, 41.3025710943056, -89.4287109375, 41.3025710943056}

Didn't find what you're looking for? Suggest a dataset here.