Future sea-level rise poses a risk to mangrove forests. To better understand potential vulnerability, we developed a new numerical model of soil elevation for mangrove forests. We used the model to generate projections of elevation and mangrove forest composition change under four sea-level rise scenarios through 2100 (37, 52, 67, and 117 cm by 2100). We employed a data-driven modeling approach, utilizing new and existing data to inform model parameters. The model was calibrated using dated soil cores and used a spin-up period to establish the soil column prior to future projections. Additional field data, including water level monitoring and elevation surveys, were used to estimate the initial elevation of the mangrove forest relative to mean sea level, and forest inventory plots were used to estimate mangrove productivity. Finally, we used a Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate variation in annual sea level due to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.