This dataset consists of raster geotiff outputs of 30-year average annual land use and land cover transition probabilities for the California Central Valley modeled for the period 2011-2101 across 5 future scenarios. The full methods and results of this research are described in detail in “Integrated modeling of climate, land use, and water availability scenarios and their impacts on managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley” (2021). Land-use and land-cover change for California's Central Valley were modeled using the LUCAS model and five different scenarios were simulated from 2011 to 2101 across the entirety of the valley. The five future scenario projections originated from the four scenarios developed as part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project (http://climate.calcommons.org/cvlcp ). The 4 original scenarios include a Bad-Business-As-Usual (BBAU; high water availability, poor management), California Dreamin’ (DREAM; high water availability, good management), Central Valley Dustbowl (DUST; low water availability, poor management), and Everyone Equally Miserable (EEM; low water availability, good management). These scenarios represent alternative plausible futures, capturing a range of climate variability, land management activities, and habitat restoration goals. We parameterized our models based on close interpretation of these four scenario narratives to best reflect stakeholder interests, adding a baseline Historical Business-As-Usual scenario (HBAU) for comparison. The TGAP raster maps represent the average annual transition probability of a cell over a specified time period for a specified land use transition group and type. Each filename has the associated scenario ID (scn418 = DUST, scn419 = DREAM, scn420 = HBAU, scn421 = BBAU, and scn426 = EEM), transition group (e.g. FALLOW, URBANIZATION), transition type, model iteration (= it0 in all cases as only 1 Monte Carlo simulation was modeled and no iteration data used in the calculation of the probability value), timestep of the 30-year transition summary end date (ts2041 = average annual 30-year transition probability from modeled timesteps 2012 to 2041, ts2071 = average annual 30-year transition probability from modeled timesteps 2042 to 2071, and ts101 = average annual 30-year transition probability from modeled timesteps 2072 to 2101). For example, the following filename “scn418.tgap_URBANIZATION_ Grass_Shrub to Developed [Type].it0.ts2041.tif” represents 30-year cumulative URBANIZATION transition group, for the Grass/Shrub to Developed transition type, for the 2011 to 2041 model period.
More information about the LUCAS model can be found here: https://geography.wr.usgs.gov/LUCC/the_lucas_model.php. For more information on the specific parameter settings used in the model contact Tamara S. Wilson (tswilson@usgs.gov)