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Heat, Humidity, and Adverse Birth Outcomes: Quantification of Projected Risks in the Contiguous United States

Metadata Updated: August 30, 2025

This is the data for Heat, Humidity, and Adverse Birth Outcomes: Quantification of Projected Risks in the Contiguous United States

Research increasingly demonstrates relationships between higher apparent temperatures, inclusive of heat and humidity, and greater rates of preterm birth (PTB), term low birth weight (tLBW), and stillbirth cases. Through leveraging available epidemiological studies, we estimated the change in burden of these outcomes across the contiguous United States (CONUS) and throughout the 21st century during warm season months (i.e., May through September or October). We projected an additional 4,500 PTBs, 3,800 tLBWs, and 420 stillbirths at 1°C of CONUS warming attributable to changes in apparent temperature relative to baseline climatic conditions (1985-2006). These cases increased to 22,000 PTBs, 18,000 tLBWs, and 2,000 stillbirths with 4°C of warming relative to the baseline. We projected the most significant changes in per capita rates to occur in Gulf Coast states, where baseline risks currently are among the highest in the CONUS. Across the three outcomes, we projected an increase in short-term healthcare costs following birth of approximately US$690 million annually at 1°C of warming, increasing to US$3.3 billion annually at 4°C (2023 dollars). When considering the economic burden of the infant deaths resulting from PTB and tLBW cases, we projected additional costs on the order of US$3.9 billion annually at 1°C, and US$35.8 billion annually at 4°C. Due to data availability, our valuation could not account for potential longer-term health and productivity implications or pain and suffering that families may experience following the adverse birth outcomes analyzed. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Data will be updated upon acceptance by a journal. It can be accessed through the following means: Data will be provided at a later date. Format: Data will be updated upon acceptance by a journal

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: See this page for license information.

Downloads & Resources

No file downloads have been provided. The publisher may provide downloads in the future or they may be available from their other links.

References

https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/AT%20manuscript%20code.zip
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Costs.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Rates.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Rates.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Cases.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Rates.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Rates.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Cases.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Costs.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/2010%20Census%20Counties.xlsx
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/State%20Crosswalk.xlsx
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/ICLUS_2_Final.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_training_1986-2005_count_at.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_ssp585_at.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_EC-Earth3-Veg_ssp585_at.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_GFDL-ESM4_ssp585_at.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_NorESM2-MM_ssp585_at.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_ACCESS-CM2_ssp585_at.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_training_1986-2005_count_at_LOCAhumidity.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_GFDL-ESM4_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_ACCESS-CM2_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_EC-Earth3-Veg_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_NorESM2-MM_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/CONUS%20Temp%20Bins%20CMIP6.xlsx
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/MH%20valuation_5.30_AT.xlsx
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/probability%20PTB%2C%20LBW.pdf
https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/CMIP6%20Annual%20VSL%20Projection%20Elas_1.xlsx

Dates

Metadata Created Date August 30, 2025
Metadata Updated Date August 30, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from EPA ScienceHub

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date August 30, 2025
Metadata Updated Date August 30, 2025
Publisher U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD)
Maintainer
Identifier https://doi.org/10.23719/1532432
Data Last Modified 2025-07-24
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 020:00
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Harvest Object Id f2643571-a65c-4248-a55e-5a4840460ca5
Harvest Source Id 04b59eaf-ae53-4066-93db-80f2ed0df446
Harvest Source Title EPA ScienceHub
License https://pasteur.epa.gov/license/sciencehub-license-non-epa-generated.html
Program Code 020:000
Publisher Hierarchy U.S. Government > U.S. Environmental Protection Agency > U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD)
Related Documents https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/AT%20manuscript%20code.zip, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Costs.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Rates.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Rates.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_LOCA_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Cases.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Rates.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_GCM%20Average%20MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Rates.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Cases.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20National%20Costs.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Cases.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/6.16_staticPop_MH%20Apparent%20Temperature%20PTB-LBW-Stillbirth%20State%20Costs.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/2010%20Census%20Counties.xlsx, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/State%20Crosswalk.xlsx, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/ICLUS_2_Final.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_training_1986-2005_count_at.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_ssp585_at.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_EC-Earth3-Veg_ssp585_at.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_GFDL-ESM4_ssp585_at.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_NorESM2-MM_ssp585_at.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_ACCESS-CM2_ssp585_at.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_training_1986-2005_count_at_LOCAhumidity.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_MPI-ESM1-2-HR_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_GFDL-ESM4_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_ACCESS-CM2_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_EC-Earth3-Veg_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/LOCA_proj_NorESM2-MM_ssp585_at_LOCAhumidity.csv, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/CONUS%20Temp%20Bins%20CMIP6.xlsx, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/MH%20valuation_5.30_AT.xlsx, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/probability%20PTB%2C%20LBW.pdf, https://pasteur.epa.gov/uploads/10.23719/1532432/documents/CMIP6%20Annual%20VSL%20Projection%20Elas_1.xlsx
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 17d8d56f2e979ffa680b84d3b2a748546f8d0fd3c19447ce0b2110155e60546d
Source Schema Version 1.1

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