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Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: May 05, 2026 at 07:41 PM | Dataset Last Updated: May 03, 2023 at 12:00 AM
One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future (pseudo-global warming) climate scenarios. This simple analysis allowed us to map the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Here we provide rasters that contain the probability of rainfall exceeding infiltration capacity in each grid cell at 90 m. We have included rasters of excess rainfall probabilities for current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) scenarios as well as by each individual land cover class considered.

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