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    • Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 1.0 Degree

    Metadata Updated: December 12, 2025

    The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself. The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. With global coverage, GEFS is produced four times a day with weather forecasts going out to 16 days and a 6 hour temporal resolution. This dataset has 1.0 degree horizontal resolution.

    Access & Use Information

    License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

    Downloads & Resources

    Dates

    Metadata Date July 30, 2025
    Metadata Created Date December 12, 2025
    Metadata Updated Date December 12, 2025
    Reference Date(s) October 1, 2007 (publication)
    Frequency Of Update notPlanned

    Metadata Source

    Harvested from ncdc

    Other Data Resources

    Additional Metadata

    Resource Type Dataset
    Metadata Date July 30, 2025
    Metadata Created Date December 12, 2025
    Metadata Updated Date December 12, 2025
    Reference Date(s) October 1, 2007 (publication)
    Responsible Party NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (Point of Contact)
    Contact Email
    Guid gov.noaa.ncdc:C00691
    Access Constraints
    Bbox East Long 180.0
    Bbox North Lat 90.0
    Bbox South Lat -90.0
    Bbox West Long -180.0
    Coupled Resource
    Frequency Of Update notPlanned
    Harvest Object Id 8891c5eb-ab54-49a1-8c22-88c45d0f6a9c
    Harvest Source Id 2cb3ef77-1683-4c2a-9119-dc65e50917c6
    Harvest Source Title ncdc
    Licence
    Lineage
    Metadata Language eng; USA
    Metadata Type geospatial
    Old Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": [[[-180.0, -90.0], [180.0, -90.0], [180.0, 90.0], [-180.0, 90.0], [-180.0, -90.0]]]}
    Progress completed
    Spatial Data Service Type
    Spatial Reference System
    Spatial Harvester True
    Temporal Extent Begin 2008-10-01
    Temporal Extent End 2020-09-23

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