Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Skip to content

Try the next-generation Data Catalog at catalog-beta.data.gov and help shape it with your feedback.

Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

Metadata Updated: April 10, 2025

Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research in developing newer and more competent methods for URM is gaining momentum.2Beyond initial concepts, more sophisticated prediction distributions are obtained that are not limited to assumptions of Normality and unimodal characteristics. Most prediction algorithms yield non-parametric distributions that are then approximated as known ones for analytical simplicity, especially for performance assessment methods. Although applying the prognostic metrics introduced earlier with their simple definitions has proven useful, a lot of information about the distributions gets thrown away. In this paper, several techniques have been suggested for incorporating information available from Remaining Useful Life (RUL) distributions, while applying the prognostic performance metrics. These approaches offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to metrics like prediction horizon and α-λ performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information. A variety of options have been shortlisted that could be employed depending on whether the distributions can be approximated to some known form or cannot be parameterized. This paper presents a qualitative analysis on how and when these techniques should be used along with a quantitative comparison on a real application scenario. A particle filter based prognostic framework has been chosen as the candidate algorithm on which to evaluate the performance metrics due to its unique advantages in uncertainty management and flexibility in accommodating non-linear models and non-Gaussian noise. We investigate how performance estimates get affected by choosing different options of integrating the uncertainty estimates. This allows us to identify the advantages and limitations of these techniques and their applicability towards a standardized performance evaluation method.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date April 10, 2025
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date April 10, 2025
Publisher Dashlink
Maintainer
Identifier DASHLINK_825
Data First Published 2013-07-29
Data Last Modified 2025-03-31
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id d7d0f2fc-f8d7-4170-b71e-bd73061d8098
Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Homepage URL https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/resources/825/
Program Code 026:029
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash f8483d9f2673498042d2f33d124328598cec8208b4c69b146d2d8019d56aae64
Source Schema Version 1.1

Didn't find what you're looking for? Suggest a dataset here.