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Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

Metadata Updated: December 6, 2023

Prognostics has taken center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Four prognostic algorithms, Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR), are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in a different manner; depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, this paper offers ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized.

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Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date December 6, 2023
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date December 6, 2023
Publisher Dashlink
Identifier DASHLINK_821
Data First Published 2013-07-29
Data Last Modified 2020-01-29
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context
Metadata Catalog ID
Schema Version
Catalog Describedby
Harvest Object Id 1c361807-ae37-433d-ae2f-69c62442a4f4
Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Homepage URL
Program Code 026:029
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash bebc6c5f7f0fef8ff50be410be8f622f978d9441e15527afef046d34964c6e29
Source Schema Version 1.1

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