Data from: Population dynamics associated with <i>Neotoma </i>midden habitats and forecasting of a stored product insect, <i>Rhyzopertha dominica</i> F. (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), in northeastern Kansas
Rhyzopertha dominica is a major stored-product pest with global impacts, yet its population dynamics outside grain facilities and behavior during colder periods remain poorly understood. This study examined the association between R. dominica and Neotoma rodent dens (middens) in northeast Kansas to assess whether these structures serve as year-round resources and winter refuges. Beetle abundances were compared over one year between traps near middens and control traps, and monthly peak captures were evaluated. Overall abundance was greater near middens, suggesting an association and possible nest use, though overwintering was not confirmed. Peak captures occurred early (April–May) and late (October) in the trapping season, with highest captures in October at midden sites and July at control sites. To further examine R. dominica population dynamics, we combined our trapping data with previously collected R. dominica from nearby field sites and used random forest and generalized additive forecasting models to forecast populations in northeast Kansas through 2040. Population dynamics were similar across years in both models, and within comparisons of different environmental variables models. Precipitation and humidity emerged as strong predictors of population variation in both models, and earlier seasonal emergence driven and predicted by the late 2030s in a random forest model including only temperature as factor. Although these models predict stable population dynamics, earlier emergence highlights the need to reevaluate pest monitoring and management timing. These findings emphasize considering cryptic microhabitat use in a natural environments and highlight the use of climate-driven phenological shifts when developing regional management strategies.Weather_Count_Data_Full: Lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica, counts and weather data as collected by onsite weather station for each date of collection and week of sampling. Each trap is represented, C = control; F = Forest; R = Railroad. Average temperature (ave_temp_c) in degrees Celcius; average relative humidity (avg_rh); average wind speed (avg_wind); Location of trap (midden or control); lesser grain borer count (count).ScheffAddedForecast: Lesser grain borer count data from Scheff et al., 2021.R code provided is a representative example of how to create and evaluate random forest and GAM forecasts. It uses the dataset ScheffAddedForecast.csv.
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ScheffAddedForecast.csv
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Weather_Count_Data_Full.csv
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R_code_Forecasting.txt
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Complete Metadata
| @type | dcat:Dataset |
|---|---|
| accessLevel | public |
| accrualPeriodicity | irregular |
| bureauCode |
[ "005:18" ] |
| contactPoint |
{ "fn": "Gerken, Alison R.", "hasEmail": "mailto:alison.gerken@usda.gov" } |
| description | <p dir="ltr"><i>Rhyzopertha dominica </i>is a major stored-product pest with global impacts, yet its population dynamics outside grain facilities and behavior during colder periods remain poorly understood. This study examined the association between <i>R. dominica</i> and <i>Neotoma </i>rodent dens (middens) in northeast Kansas to assess whether these structures serve as year-round resources and winter refuges. Beetle abundances were compared over one year between traps near middens and control traps, and monthly peak captures were evaluated. Overall abundance was greater near middens, suggesting an association and possible nest use, though overwintering was not confirmed. Peak captures occurred early (April–May) and late (October) in the trapping season, with highest captures in October at midden sites and July at control sites. To further examine <i>R. dominica</i> population dynamics, we combined our trapping data with previously collected <i>R. dominica </i>from nearby field sites and used random forest and generalized additive forecasting models to forecast populations in northeast Kansas through 2040. Population dynamics were similar across years in both models, and within comparisons of different environmental variables models. Precipitation and humidity emerged as strong predictors of population variation in both models, and earlier seasonal emergence driven and predicted by the late 2030s in a random forest model including only temperature as factor. Although these models predict stable population dynamics, earlier emergence highlights the need to reevaluate pest monitoring and management timing. These findings emphasize considering cryptic microhabitat use in a natural environments and highlight the use of climate-driven phenological shifts when developing regional management strategies<i>.</i></p><p dir="ltr">Weather_Count_Data_Full: Lesser grain borer, <i>Rhyzopertha dominica</i>, counts and weather data as collected by onsite weather station for each date of collection and week of sampling. Each trap is represented, C = control; F = Forest; R = Railroad. Average temperature (ave_temp_c) in degrees Celcius; average relative humidity (avg_rh); average wind speed (avg_wind); Location of trap (midden or control); lesser grain borer count (count).</p><p dir="ltr">ScheffAddedForecast: Lesser grain borer count data from Scheff et al., 2021.</p><p dir="ltr">R code provided is a representative example of how to create and evaluate random forest and GAM forecasts. It uses the dataset ScheffAddedForecast.csv.</p> |
| distribution |
[ { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "ScheffAddedForecast.csv", "format": "csv", "mediaType": "text/csv", "downloadURL": "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/64956528" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "Weather_Count_Data_Full.csv", "format": "csv", "mediaType": "text/csv", "downloadURL": "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/64957695" }, { "@type": "dcat:Distribution", "title": "R_code_Forecasting.txt", "format": "txt", "mediaType": "text/plain", "downloadURL": "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/64999194" } ] |
| identifier | 10.15482/USDA.ADC/32408430.v1 |
| keyword |
[ "Rhyzopertha dominica", "forecasting", "natural landscape", "overwintering", "source code", "stored product insect", "woodrat middens" ] |
| license | https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ |
| modified | 2026-06-17 |
| programCode |
[ "005:040" ] |
| publisher |
{ "name": "Agricultural Research Service", "@type": "org:Organization" } |
| temporal | 2024-04-04/2025-04-04 |
| title | Data from: Population dynamics associated with <i>Neotoma </i>midden habitats and forecasting of a stored product insect, <i>Rhyzopertha dominica</i> F. (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), in northeastern Kansas |
