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Data for multiple linear regression models for estimating Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations or the probability of exceeding the bathing-water standard at recreational sites in Ohio and Pennsylvania as part of the Great Lakes NowCast, 2019

Metadata Updated: November 27, 2025

Site-specific multiple linear regression models were developed for one beach in Ohio (three discrete sampling sites) and one beach in Pennsylvania to estimate concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) or the probability of exceeding the bathing-water standard for E. coli in recreational waters used by the public. Traditional culture-based methods are commonly used to estimate concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria, such as E. coli; however, results are obtained 18 to 24 hours post sampling and do not accurately reflect current water-quality conditions. Beach-specific mathematical models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts”. Software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, water temperature, change in lake level over 24 hours, and antecedent rainfall. Model results are used by managers to report water-quality conditions to the public through the Great Lakes NowCast in 2019 (https://pa.water.usgs.gov/apps/nowcast/). Model performance in 2019 (sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy) was compared to using the previous day's E. coli concentration (persistence method).

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Dates

Metadata Created Date September 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date November 27, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date November 27, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-5fe22dead34e30b9123f09b5
Data Last Modified 2021-09-02T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id d89eaea3-6c48-4cf4-8bbc-7923ba53ec44
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 709b11c8b238b8d2b4ff00a3d9970c7c0cd5aa0c51936a9002d7c4b02ec455e5
Source Schema Version 1.1

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