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County Population 2100 Baseline Scenario Colorado Plateau

Metadata Updated: September 17, 2025

Future county population was based on projections for 2100 from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM; Theobald 2005). SERGoM simulates population based on existing patterns of growth by census block, groundwater well and road density, and transportation distance to urban areas, while constraining the pattern of development to areas outside of protected areas and urban areas (Theobald 2005). The dataset here is a projection for a “baseline” growth scenario that assumes a similar trajectory to that of current urban growth (Bierwagen et al. 2010). SERGoM accuracy is estimated as 79–99% when compared to 1990 and 2000 census data, with the accuracy varying by urban/exurban/rural categories and increasing slightly with coarser resolution (Theobald 2005). The accuracy of future model predictions with different economic scenarios is most sensitive to fertility rates, which are subject to cultural change, economic recessions, and the current pattern of lands protected from development (Bierwagen et al. 2010). Bierwagen, B. G., D. M. Theobald, C. R. Pyke, A. Choate, P. Groth, J. V. Thomas, and P. Morefield. 2010. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107:20887-20892. Theobald, D. M. 2005. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 10: article 32.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date September 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date September 17, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date September 17, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-5a42aff3e4b0d05ee8bbf5eb
Data Last Modified 2020-08-27T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 2542644b-4dec-4dc6-861b-b9f535798c44
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -115.078670208, 33.3232904695, -104.836198238, 42.0067736509
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 5bcfd8d58132ac8cc5c1a914a54b313d8754f8a19c9388c51925ac22372b3b57
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -115.078670208, 33.3232904695, -115.078670208, 42.0067736509, -104.836198238, 42.0067736509, -104.836198238, 33.3232904695, -115.078670208, 33.3232904695}

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