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Counterfactual land cover projections for the Hawaiian islands

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: May 05, 2026 at 10:10 PM | Dataset Last Updated: July 10, 2025 at 12:00 AM
The goal of this project is to expand upon the land cover rasters developed for the Hawaii Carbon Assessment by simulating future land cover scenarios. Although such land cover spread simulations have been produced in the past, this is the first attempt at developing a statewide product that also incorporates the latest empirical land cover spread rate data, as well as land cover spread susceptibility data, to better estimate the future extents of nonnative forests and grasses. Additionally, we simulate the restoration of native forests in land cover management units and the loss of forest to wildfire. There are six rasters total: three scenarios each with results for the years 2070 and 2100. The scenarios are as follows: No protection: The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is uninhibited, there is no restoration of native forest within management units, and there is no reduction in fire-driven forest loss; Targeted protection: The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, but there are no native forest restoration efforts. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 50%; Targeted protection and restoration: The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, and native forest is restored within these areas. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 100%.

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