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Coastal Change Likelihood in the U.S. Northeast Region: Maine to Virginia - Perpetual Hazards

Metadata Updated: September 24, 2025

Coastal resources are increasingly impacted by erosion, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, tidal flooding, and other potential hazards related to climate change. These hazards have varying impacts on coastal landscapes due to the numerous geologic, oceanographic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that exist at a given location. Here, an assessment framework is introduced that synthesizes existing datasets describing the variability of the landscape and hazards that may act on it to evaluate the likelihood of coastal change along the U.S coastline within the coming decade. The pilot study, conducted in the Northeastern U.S. (Maine to Virginia), is comprised of datasets derived from a variety of federal, state, and local sources. First, a decision tree-based dataset is built that describes the fabric or integrity of the coastal landscape and includes landcover, elevation, slope, long-term (>150 years) shoreline change trends, dune height, and marsh stability data. A second database was generated from coastal hazards, which are divided into event hazards (e.g., flooding, wave power, and probability of storm overwash) and persistent hazards (e.g., relative sea-level rise rate, short-term (about 30 years) shoreline erosion rate, and storm recurrence interval). The fabric dataset is then merged with the coastal hazards databases and a training dataset made up of hundreds of polygons is generated from the merged dataset to support a supervised learning classification. Results from this pilot study are location-specific at 10-meter resolution and are made up of four raster datasets that include (1) quantitative and qualitative information used to determine the resistance of the landscape to change, (2 & 3) the potential coastal hazards that act on it, (4) the machine learning output, or Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL), based on the cumulative effects of both fabric and hazards, and (5) an estimate of the hazard type (event or persistent) that is the likely to influence coastal change. Final outcomes are intended to be used as a first order planning tool to determine which areas of the coast may be more likely to change in response to future potential coastal hazards, and to examine elements and drivers that make change in a location more likely.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Dates

Metadata Created Date September 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date September 24, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 14, 2025
Metadata Updated Date September 24, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-6178323ad34e4c6b7fe2a4a0
Data Last Modified 2023-02-28T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 67bdf4fe-6d48-48ba-bb85-d60273a73ffe
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -77.4828, 36.5148, -66.5998, 45.3000
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 1c1f3a286f1e793574203a44649a11dcb991567923f5a1a68913d3576ff85e19
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -77.4828, 36.5148, -77.4828, 45.3000, -66.5998, 45.3000, -66.5998, 36.5148, -77.4828, 36.5148}

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