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CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: May 05, 2026 at 09:56 PM | Dataset Last Updated: March 28, 2024 at 12:00 AM
Projections of extreme event metrics and threshold exceedances are produced by analyzing the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 Localized Constructed Analogs (CMIP6-LOCA2) data set. The primary daily temperature and precipitation data are summarized to 36 annual metrics and 4 monthly metrics. This data set includes output from 27 GCMs for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States with partial coverage in Mexico and Canada. To support climate research within and outside the Department of Interior these data are distributed in a variety of formats: individual model grids for all years, gridded climatologies (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and Global Warming Levels +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C, +3.0 °C), and time series spatially averaged to United States county and watershed boundaries (HUC8 from the Watershed Boundary Dataset). Ensemble averages are provided for the Weighted Multi-Model Mean (WMMM) and Multi-Model Mean (MMM) where appropriate. Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds were included to support Department of Interior research. There are 72 simulations in total (ssp245=24, ssp370=23, ssp585=25). While the CMIP6-LOCA2 data set supports multiple realizations per model; one realization per model is provided herein (predominately r1i1p1f1, except when this realization was not available). Users interested in the source downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the data set home page: https://loca.ucsd.edu. The 27 included GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1

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