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Change from Historical in Number of Days with High Fire Risk (Energy Release Component, 95th percentile), RCP8.5, 2050s

Published by U.S. Geological Survey | Department of the Interior | Catalog Last Checked: September 10, 2026 at 07:46 PM | Dataset Last Updated: September 01, 2026 at 12:00 AM
The Energy Release Component (ERC) is a calculated output of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). The ERC is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The ERC is considered a composite fuel moisture index as it reflects the contribution of all live and dead fuels to potential fire intensity. As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC will increase and can be described as a build-up index. The ERC has memory. Each daily calculation considers the past 7 days in calculating the new number. Daily variations of the ERC are relatively small as wind is not part of the calculation.

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