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Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea-level rise

Metadata Updated: October 29, 2025

This dataset contains projections of shoreline positions and uncertainty bands for future scenarios of sea-level rise. Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with lidar-derived shoreline vectors. Read metadata carefully. Details: Projections of shoreline position in the Central Coast of California are made for scenarios of 25, 50, 75, 92, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. SLR scenarios for 25, 50 and 75 cm are included in the National Research Council (NRC) excel and KMZ files. Four datasets are available for different management conditions: shorelines are allowed to retreat unimpeded past urban structures ("NO Hold the Line") or are limited to this urban boundary ("Hold the Line"), and shorelines are allowed to progress with projected increases in sediment ("Continued Nourishment") or with no projected increases ("No Nourishment"). Projections are made at CoSMoS Monitoring and Observation Points, which represent shore-normal transects spaced 100 m alongshore. The CoSMoS-COAST model solves a coupled set of partial differential equations that resembles conservation of sediment for the series of transects. The model is synthesized from several shoreline models in the scientific literature, which is described in more detail, along with the CoSMoS-Coast methodology, in Vitousek and others 2017. Significant uncertainty is associated with the process noise of the model and unresolved coastal processes. This makes estimation of uncertainty difficult. The uncertainty bands predicted here represent 95 percent confidence bands associated with the modeled shoreline fluctuations. Unresolved processes are not accounted for in the uncertainty bands and could lead to significantly more uncertainty than reported in these predictions.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date September 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date October 29, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date October 29, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-5b32721ce4b040769c1597ef
Data Last Modified 2021-10-13T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id c92633f9-20c9-4306-bfe3-130936d66cae
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -122.70, 34.52, -120.42, 37.82
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash a2ab77446bc597507e77949d3975e69c2c24610efd890b8dd417dc92e0bd525f
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -122.70, 34.52, -122.70, 37.82, -120.42, 37.82, -120.42, 34.52, -122.70, 34.52}

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