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Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS)

Published by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) | Department of Energy | Catalog Last Checked: April 30, 2026 at 12:10 PM | Dataset Last Updated: April 29, 2026 at 06:15 PM
The Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset establishes and simulates a plausible range of scenarios for U.S. buildings sector development between now and 2050 with a high degree of geographic and temporal resolution. The BSS framework integrates the capabilities of existing modeling tools to pair detailed snapshots of the buildings sector today with representation of the key drivers of change in building and technology stocks over time. The high granularity and extensive scope of BSS data position this modeling resource as a starting point for diverse stakeholder analyses, ranging from the use of regional or national estimates of annual demand to evaluate program impacts to the use of county-level hourly electricity data to inform grid planning efforts and supply-side scenario modeling exercises. The data lake contains: - bss_ref_slides: Reference slides with information to support interpretation of the dataset. - df_potential: Demand flexibility technical potential estimates and costs for the projection years 2030, 2040, and 2050 by scenario (from DR-Path) - dmd_cal_ann_state_county_hourly: Hourly-county disaggregation multipliers and projections (every 2 years, 2026-2050) of annual, state-level and hourly, county-level demand, post-calibration of electricity data to EIA 861M. - dmd_uncal_ann_state: Uncalibrated annual state-level stock, energy, and energy cost projections (every 2 years, 2024-2050) by scenario (from Scout). - meas_scn_inputs: Measure definitions, scenario summary, and adoption driver input files. For more information on the data structure and contents please see the "README" resource below and the Reference Slides included in the data lake. Versioning: - v1.1.0 Created 04/16/2026 - Key changes from v1.0.0: Assign "miscellaneous" load shape to commercial other electricity usage (previously assigned commercial "gap" shape). Bug fixes for residential panel upgrade cost assignment and estimation of energy use reductions from code/BPS efficiency provisions. Note that DF potential estimates (in "Demand Flexibility Technical Potential.zip") are still based on demand projections from v1.

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Complete Metadata
@type dcat:Dataset
accessLevel public
bureauCode 
                                            [
  "019:20"
]
contactPoint 
                                            {
  "fn": "Jared Langevin",
  "@type": "vcard:Contact",
  "hasEmail": "mailto:jared.langevin@lbl.gov"
}
dataQuality 
                                            true
description The Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset establishes and simulates a plausible range of scenarios for U.S. buildings sector development between now and 2050 with a high degree of geographic and temporal resolution. The BSS framework integrates the capabilities of existing modeling tools to pair detailed snapshots of the buildings sector today with representation of the key drivers of change in building and technology stocks over time. The high granularity and extensive scope of BSS data position this modeling resource as a starting point for diverse stakeholder analyses, ranging from the use of regional or national estimates of annual demand to evaluate program impacts to the use of county-level hourly electricity data to inform grid planning efforts and supply-side scenario modeling exercises. The data lake contains: - bss_ref_slides: Reference slides with information to support interpretation of the dataset. - df_potential: Demand flexibility technical potential estimates and costs for the projection years 2030, 2040, and 2050 by scenario (from DR-Path) - dmd_cal_ann_state_county_hourly: Hourly-county disaggregation multipliers and projections (every 2 years, 2026-2050) of annual, state-level and hourly, county-level demand, post-calibration of electricity data to EIA 861M. - dmd_uncal_ann_state: Uncalibrated annual state-level stock, energy, and energy cost projections (every 2 years, 2024-2050) by scenario (from Scout). - meas_scn_inputs: Measure definitions, scenario summary, and adoption driver input files. For more information on the data structure and contents please see the "README" resource below and the Reference Slides included in the data lake. Versioning: - v1.1.0 Created 04/16/2026 - Key changes from v1.0.0: Assign "miscellaneous" load shape to commercial other electricity usage (previously assigned commercial "gap" shape). Bug fixes for residential panel upgrade cost assignment and estimation of energy use reductions from code/BPS efficiency provisions. Note that DF potential estimates (in "Demand Flexibility Technical Potential.zip") are still based on demand projections from v1.
distribution 
                                            [
  {
    "@type": "dcat:Distribution",
    "title": "Scenario Data",
    "format": "HTML",
    "accessURL": "https://data.openei.org/s3_viewer?bucket=oedi-data-lake&prefix=buildings-sector-scenarios%2F",
    "mediaType": "text/html",
    "description": "Building sector scenarios scenario data in S3. See the attached README for more information on the structure and contents. "
  },
  {
    "@type": "dcat:Distribution",
    "title": "OEDI Data Registry on AWS",
    "format": "HTML",
    "accessURL": "https://registry.opendata.aws/oedi-data-lake/",
    "mediaType": "text/html",
    "description": "AWS public dataset program registry page for data released under the Department of Energy's (DOE) Open Energy Data Initiative (OEDI). The registry page contains information about dataset documentation, access, and contact, for each of the OEDI Data Lake datasets."
  },
  {
    "@type": "dcat:Distribution",
    "title": "README.md",
    "format": "md",
    "mediaType": "application/octet-stream",
    "description": "Guidance on how to interpret and use the dataset.",
    "downloadURL": "https://data.openei.org/files/8558/README_v1.1.0.md"
  }
]
identifier https://data.openei.org/submissions/8558
issued 2025-10-31T06:00:00Z
keyword 
                                            [
  "2050",
  "BSS",
  "United States",
  "annual energy demand",
  "building",
  "building stock",
  "buildings",
  "data",
  "dataset",
  "demand-side solutions",
  "development",
  "energy",
  "hourly electric loads",
  "key driver",
  "model",
  "power demand",
  "processed data",
  "raw data",
  "scenario",
  "scenario modeling",
  "sector",
  "technology stock"
]
landingPage https://data.openei.org/submissions/8558
license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
modified 2026-04-29T18:15:02Z
programCode 
                                            [
  "019:000",
  "019:002"
]
projectNumber FY25 AOP 3.5.5.71
projectTitle Buildings Standard Scenarios
publisher 
                                            {
  "name": "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)",
  "@type": "org:Organization"
}
spatial 
                                            "{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-180,-83],[180,-83],[180,83],[-180,83],[-180,-83]]]}"
title Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS)

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