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An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty

Metadata Updated: December 7, 2023

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the sys- tem. Prognostics algorithms must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajecto- ries of a system by using the unscented transform. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computa- tional load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experi- mental data from a battery testbed.

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Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date December 7, 2023
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date December 7, 2023
Publisher Dashlink
Identifier DASHLINK_691
Data First Published 2013-04-12
Data Last Modified 2020-01-29
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context
Metadata Catalog ID
Schema Version
Catalog Describedby
Harvest Object Id a9cc3796-c2b5-4061-a5c5-d235e85518ea
Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Homepage URL
Program Code 026:029
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash c73f68b3b621f1d0fd6ce2ea34d8dd572825543c0b43011010932788db1a4cd9
Source Schema Version 1.1

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